India’s Rice Market: Record Harvests Fuel Export Surge as Global Markets Eye Supplies

The global rice market is at a pivotal moment: record harvests in India are driving export volumes to unprecedented levels, fundamentally altering trade dynamics. For the 2025/2026 season starting October 1, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) projects India’s rice harvest will hit 150 million tonnes, surpassing last season’s record of 149 million tonnes. From October 2024 to March 2025 alone, India has already exported 12.7 million tonnes of rice—a notable 5.6 million tonnes more than the same period last year. If this pace continues, India is set to export a record 24.5 million tonnes this season, cementing its role as the world’s leading rice supplier. The next season could even see exports reach 25 million tonnes, especially if favorable price parity and government policies on stock management persist. This surge comes at a time when domestic prices remain low and international demand is robust, thanks in part to weather-related uncertainties in other major producing countries. Amidst this, price variations across varieties and origins, coupled with evolving weather patterns and policy shifts, make for an exciting and volatile trading environment. Participants across the value chain should closely monitor developments in both India and competing exporters, as even small changes in policy or climate can rapidly shift the market landscape.

📈 Current Rice Prices: Major Export Hubs (14 June 2025)

Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
All Golden, Sella	IN	New Delhi	1.08	+0.02	Bullish
All Steam, PR11	IN	New Delhi	0.57	+0.02	Firm
Al ısteam, Sharbati	IN	New Delhi	0.72	+0.02	Supported
All Steam, 1121 Steam	IN	New Delhi	0.99	+0.02	Bullish
White Sella, 1121 Creamy	IN	New Delhi	0.90	+0.03	Bullish
White, Non Basmati (Organic)	IN	New Delhi	1.64	+0.02	Premium
White, Basmati (Organic)	IN	New Delhi	1.95	+0.02	Premium
Red	VN	Hanoi	0.91	+0.02	Firm
Long White, 5%	VN	Hanoi	0.62	+0.02	Supported
Jasmine	VN	Hanoi	0.64	0.00	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Production: India is set for a record harvest at 150 million tonnes for 2025/2026, with this season closing at 149 million tonnes.
• Exports: October–March exports reach 12.7 million tonnes (+5.6 mt y/y). Full season 2024/25 forecast at 24.5 million tonnes and possibly 25 million tonnes next season.
• Policy: No major changes in export regulation expected, but government under pressure to move inventory due to large crop and low prices.
• Competition: Vietnam and Thailand experiencing less favorable harvest conditions; India gaining share on price competitiveness.
• Speculation: Large stocks and firm export demand keeping speculative activity moderate, but watches on weather and policy shifts remain.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Trade

Country	2024/25 Production (mt)	2024/25 Exports (mt)	2024/25 Stocks (mt)
India	149	24.5 (est.)	Ample (Gov’t stocks high)
Vietnam	42	7	Modest
Thailand	32	8	Moderate
Pakistan	9	5	Low
China (importer)	146	3	Large
Nigeria (importer)	5	0	Low

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

• India: Monsoon arrival is on schedule, but rainfall distribution in eastern states is slightly below normal. Central belt remains favorable. Outlook points to average-to-above average conditions in July–August, supporting yield targets. Watch for late-monsoon shortfalls.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Early-season dryness in northern Vietnam and northeastern Thailand may reduce yield potential but recent rainfall improvements have stabilized outlook. No major crop losses expected as of now.
• Global: No looming El Niño/La Niña risks; overall neutral climate outlook favors stable production globally.

📉 Market Insights vs. Previous Report

• Export Momentum: India’s pace has accelerated 80% YoY, outstripping last report’s expectation for gradual growth.
• Global Appetite: Global buyers increasingly turn to India as a price/volume anchor, while cautious on Thailand/Vietnam on weather.
• Price Trends: Indian rice prices remain the most competitive globally, with upward revisions since the last report, yet still below global highs.
• Risks: Any abrupt shift in Indian export policy or monsoon failure could spark a rapid price rally reminiscent of past market spikes.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor India’s government stock policy for potential supply shocks or export curbs.
• Watch July–August monsoon data for confirmation of yield stability.
• Buyers advised to cover contracts early to lock in current price advantage, especially for non-basmati and sella varieties.
• Sellers to remain alert for opportunistic sales if weather or policy triggers a price spike.
• Spread risk by sourcing from Vietnam/Thailand as insurance against Indian supply surprises.

🔮 3-Day Regional FOB Price Forecast (Major Exchanges, €/kg)

Variety	Origin/Location	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
All Golden, Sella	New Delhi, IN	1.08	1.09	1.09	1.10
All Steam, PR11	New Delhi, IN	0.57	0.58	0.58	0.59
Long White, 5%	Hanoi, VN	0.62	0.62	0.63	0.63

Short-term outlook: Steady-to-firm sentiment, with India’s FOB prices expected to edge higher on robust export flows and manageable weather. Upside risks remain if weather turns adverse or if government export policy shifts suddenly.