Lentil Sowing Slumps in Gujarat Despite Rain—Market Faces Rising Uncertainty

This season, the lentils market is defined by an unusual disconnect: excellent rainfall in Gujarat, usually a catalyst for bumper sowing, has instead coincided with an 18% plunge in lentil acreage. Distrust in procurement policy, after last season’s shortfall in government support at the Minimum Support Price (MSP), is driving farmers away from lentils to better-backed alternatives. This worrying trend signals not just short-term supply squeezes in India—one of the world’s top lentil consumers—but also exposes a larger vulnerability across global trade, where perceived policy risk trumps even ideal agronomic conditions.

With Canadian lentil prices showing mild week-on-week softness and Chinese green lentils also easing, international traders are watching India’s situation: will the acreage drop spark fresh import demand, or will government action steady farmer confidence? Explore below for price tables, supply-demand insights, regional weather impacts, and trading recommendations for the days ahead.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Purity/Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change (EUR/t)	Market Sentiment
Red football	Canada	Ottawa	Conventional	FOB	2.46	-0.01	Soft
Laird Green	Canada	Ottawa	Conventional	FOB	1.64	-0.01	Stable/Soft
Eston Green	Canada	Ottawa	Conventional	FOB	1.51	-0.01	Stable/Soft
Small Green	China	Beijing	Organic	FOB	1.30	-0.02	Soft
Small Green	China	Beijing	Conventional	FOB	1.22	-0.02	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Gujarat’s lentil area is down 18% year-on-year, offsetting excellent rains. Key cause: eroded farmer trust after last season’s poor government procurement at MSP.
• Canada: Canadian lentil prices remain soft as markets closely track potential India-led import surges if domestic shortages appear.
• China: Both organic and conventional small green lentil prices drift lower—ample stocks help offset India’s shortfall, but logistics and Indian import policy are crucial pivots.

📊 Fundamentals

• Policy Shift: Last season’s weak government procurement in India has had outsized influence, overwhelming favorable weather benefits.
• Crop Switching: Farmers have migrated to oilseeds and alternate pulses with better perceived market support.
• Inventories: Indian stockpiles are trending lower as sowing shrinks; Canadian stocks are healthy, and export volumes steady.
• Speculation: No pronounced speculative build-up; mostly a wait-and-see market with mild bearish sentiment outside India.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Gujarat/India: Outstanding rainfall continues, creating optimal conditions for late-season lentil development (where sowing persists) and for other pulses.
• Canada: Western provinces report typical summer heat but adequate soil moisture. No major threats reported in the Prairie provinces.
• China: Northern plains experience steady, warm weather—favorable for lentil grain fill and harvest.

Effect: Weather remains supportive globally but is currently overshadowed by India’s policy and market sentiment factors.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production Estimate (mt)	Stock Change
India	1.1m (est.)	Falling
Canada	2.3m (est.)	Stable
China	0.3m (est.)	Stable
Turkey/EU	0.25m (est.)	Stable/Increasing

📅 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Indian government policy—any intervention (MSP, procurement drives) would rapidly tighten international markets.
• Supply risk for India-based buyers—secure forward contracts if stocks are low.
• Canadian/Chinese producers: Hold if possible, as short-term downside is limited and any demand uptick will improve prices.
• Traders: Watch for import duty changes and port activity in Indian subcontinent—entry signals for spot buying.
• Weather remains supportive: Track late Kharif season progress—unexpected weather events could trigger volatility.

🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Price Direction	Forecast Range (EUR/t)
CBOT (reference)	Flat to slightly lower	1.55–2.48
Euronext (reference)	Stable	1.60–2.50
FOB CA (Ottawa)	Stable/Soft	1.50–2.50
FOB CN (Beijing)	Soft	1.20–1.32