Sunflower Market Dynamics: Mild Correction and Firm Export Demand Shape Outlook

The international sunflower market is undergoing subtle but significant changes as we approach the mid-year harvest review period. Recent SAFEX data for sunflower contracts points to a mild correction, with most active months showing slight declines: August 2025 closed at ZAR 9,574/t (-0.27%), September at ZAR 9,667/t (-0.24%), and December at ZAR 9,862/t (-0.24%). These corrections are occurring in the context of robust global demand, stable-to-firm prices for processed sunflower products, and seasonally shifting weather patterns across both hemispheres.

The market remains influenced by mixed fundamentals: international kernels and seeds are holding steady or ticking upward in EUR terms, but ongoing macroeconomic pressures, fluctuating currency dynamics (especially ZAR/EUR), and persistent logistical bottlenecks are tempering bullish enthusiasm. Traders are closely watching 2025 crop conditions across Southeast Europe, Ukraine, and the Black Sea, as well as recent USDA and FAO reports suggesting a possible drawdown in global oilseed stocks.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Exchange	Contract	Last Close	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SAFEX	Aug 2025	9,574 ZAR/t	-0.27%	Neutral/Bearish
SAFEX	Sep 2025	9,667 ZAR/t	-0.24%	Neutral/Bearish
SAFEX	Dec 2025	9,862 ZAR/t	-0.24%	Neutral/Bearish
SAFEX	Mar 2026	9,657 ZAR/t	-0.46%	Neutral/Bearish

🌍 Current Export Market Prices (EUR/t, Latest)

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Date
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.55	1.54	2025-07-30
Sunflower kernels (hulled, conf.)	CN	Beijing	FOB	0.99	0.98	2025-07-30
Sunflower kernels (hulled, bakery)	CN	Beijing	FOB	0.97	0.95	2025-07-30
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	MD	Rheinfelden Herten (DE)	FCA	0.49	0.49	2025-07-29
Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	BG	Sofia	FOB	0.52	0.52	2025-07-29
Sunflower kernels (various)	UA/BG/MD	Multiple	FCA/FOB	0.88–1.15	Stable	2025-07-29

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: Indicate tightening oilseed stocks globally, with sunflower oil stocks forecast to contract in key regions.
• Crop Acreage: Steady planting in Ukraine and the EU; acreage in Russia remains robust.
• Inventories: Black Sea carryover seen as moderate; EU stocks slightly below 5-year average.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds maintain moderate net-long exposure, signalling potential for short-term volatility, especially ahead of key weather-driven supply news.

🌦 Weather Outlook & Yield Potential

• Eastern Europe: Mixed rainfall over Ukraine and Southern Russia. Some northern areas report drought stress, but major growing zones enjoy sufficient soil moisture. Near-term forecasts call for warm, occasionally stormy weather.
• Central Europe/Balkans: Mostly beneficial, but hot spells could affect flowering and seed fill in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania.
• South Africa: Recent frost risk now waning, but yield estimates hold near average as late-planting areas mature.

📊 Fundamentals Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)	Notes
Ukraine	15.1	0.85	Steady, logistics risk remains
Russia	17.5	1.15	Near-record, good weather
EU (27)	10.6	0.59	Mild decline
Argentina	3.65	0.12	Recovery after drought
South Africa	0.83	0.06	Stable, normal harvest

📌 Trading Outlook & Guidance

• 📉 Producers: Use current mild price strength to hedge forward, especially as nearby contracts face harvest pressure.
• 📈 Exporters: East European and Black Sea sellers should remain competitive; maintain flexibility due to possible logistical slowdowns.
• 💬 Buyers: Consider gradual scale-in purchasing as price dips; focus on origin diversification due to ongoing Black Sea uncertainties.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Product	Near-term Direction	Comment
SAFEX	Sunflower Aug/Sep	Sideways to Slightly Lower	Harvest flow, stabilising ZAR
Black Sea (FOB)	Seeds/Kernels	Stable to Firmer	Strong demand, port capacity checks
EU (CIF)	Kernels	Steady	Balanced stocks, cautious buying