Peanuts Market Under Pressure: Mixed Acreage, Oversupply, and Monsoon Uncertainty

The global peanuts market is facing significant challenges, with the Indian groundnut sector—one of the world’s major suppliers—encountering renewed downward price pressure due to a confluence of factors. In India, the current season is marked by substantial contrasts in sowing activity: while Gujarat is witnessing a 10–15% expansion in acreage driven by early planting, Rajasthan has been severely affected by monsoon disruptions, resulting in a dramatic 20–30% decline in groundnut acreage.

This uneven sowing pace, combined with an overhang of government-held unsold stocks exceeding 550,000 tones, is weighing heavily on market sentiments and leading traders to adopt a defensive approach. Despite some expectations of improved yields in certain pockets, the unpredictable weather and rain patterns have kept buyers—particularly oil mills and exporters—on the sidelines. Prices have softened across all grades and producer markets, further pressured by weak domestic demand. Looking ahead, unless a substantial recovery in rainfall and a notable uptick in demand materialize, the market is poised for further volatility, with many analysts predicting additional price declines over the short term. The next few weeks will be pivotal in shaping production expectations and determining price direction as the global peanut sector enters the critical 2025–26 marketing season.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment	Offer Link
Peanuts	India	Roasted split, 60/70/80	New Delhi	FOB	1.19	1.17	+1.7%	Cautious/Bearish	Link
Peanuts	India	Birdfeed	New Delhi	CFR	1.09	1.07	+1.9%	Cautious	Link
Peanuts	Brazil	Raw	Brasília	FOB	1.34	1.32	+1.5%	Stable	Link
Peanuts	India	Java 70-80	New Delhi	FOB	1.08	1.06	+1.9%	Bearish	Link
Peanuts	India	Java 60-70	New Delhi	FOB	1.06	1.04	+1.9%	Bearish	Link
Peanuts	India	Java 50-60	New Delhi	FOB	1.14	1.12	+1.8%	Bearish	Link
Peanuts	India	Bold 60-70	New Delhi	FOB	1.06	1.04	+1.9%	Bearish	Link
Peanuts	India	Bold 50-60	New Delhi	FOB	1.07	1.05	+1.9%	Bearish	Link
Peanuts	India	Bold, 40-50	Gujarat – Gondal	FOB	1.10	1.08	+1.9%	Bearish	Link

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India’s peanut production outlook is mixed: increased acreage in Gujarat (+10–15%) offset by a 20–30% decline in Rajasthan due to erratic monsoons.
• Government agencies are holding >550,000 tonnes of unsold stocks, adding supply-side pressure.
• Domestic demand remains soft, with oil mills and exporters postponing purchases pending price stabilization.
• Major Indian mandis (Rajkot, Nashik) show increased daily arrivals but continuing price softness.
• Speculators are cautious, with a risk-off approach until rainfall improves and clarity on final plantings emerges.
• Brazil’s supply remains steady, offering support to global trade flows, but price advantage is reduced by Indian price weakness and currency movements.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA/International Reports: No major shocks; slight upgrades to yield potential in India, but subject to rainfall recovery.
• Inventories: Elevated; inventory build-up (especially in India) likely to weigh on export prices near-term.
• Speculative Positioning: Largely neutral; funds have reduced long exposure awaiting better crop and demand clarity.
• Comparative Prices: Indian peanuts are now trading at a discount to Brazil, given weak demand and oversupply.

Country	2025/26 Forecast Production (Mln T)	2025/26 Forecast Stocks (Mln T)	Key Export/Import Role
India	6.9*	1.0*	Top Exporter
China	17.6	2.2	Large Exporter & Consumer
US	3.2	0.5	Major Exporter
Brazil	0.6	0.15	Emerging Exporter
EU	0.7	0.07	Import-Dependent

*Subject to revision pending monsoon performance and final acreage.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Monsoon in India (Rajasthan, Gujarat): Patchy recovery forecast for next 7 days, improving soil moisture moderately in Gujarat; Rajasthan remains at risk for further acreage loss if rains do not increase in the next 2 weeks.
• Brazil: Stable, post-harvest dry weather supports logistics with minimal crop risk.
• US Southern Plains: Favorable late-season rains; potential for above-average yields.

📆 Market Drivers & Summary

• Monsoon reliability in India is the single biggest factor for 2025/26 output potential and trader risk appetite.
• Large unsold domestic stocks and slow government liquidation acting as strong price ceiling in India.
• Global supply chain remains well-stocked, reducing urgency and price tension for buyers.
• Currency moves and freight trends may influence near-term cross-origin competitiveness.
• Speculative traders largely sidelined—expect low volatility until tangible crop/weather news emerges.

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Importers: Consider staggered buying as prices may weaken further; monitor India rainfall closely for a buying window.
• For Exporters (India): Prioritize marketable grades; expect low margins until government stocks clear and demand turns up.
• For Traders: Stay agile; volatility likely around monsoon developments or when government announces stock sales.
• Watch currency trends (especially INR and BRL) for arbitrage opportunities as price spreads to Brazil may close quickly in case of weather improvements.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market/Exchange	Current Price (USD/tonne)	Forecast Range (USD/tonne)	Bias
Rajkot (India)	2,420–2,530	2,380–2,520	Bearish
Nashik (India)	2,440–2,575	2,420–2,560	Bearish
FOB New Delhi (India – Roasted split)	1.19 EUR/kg	1.16–1.19 EUR/kg	Bearish
FOB Brasília (Brazil – Raw)	1.34 EUR/kg	1.32–1.34 EUR/kg	Stable