Wheat Market Stabilizes as Mill Demand Supports Prices Amid Limited Arrivals

The wheat market is holding a steady course, with price resilience evident both domestically and internationally. Continued buying interest from flour mills has propped up prices in India, preventing deeper corrections despite a restricted inflow of new crop supplies in major producing regions. In Rajkot and Gondal, strong local demand for quality wheat has maintained high prices, while Madhya Pradesh’s market also reports firm premiums for top lots. At the global level, CBOT wheat futures have edged up modestly, reflecting improved sentiment as world prices stabilize after recent volatility. With mill demand in India expected to persist and arrivals constrained, market participants are watching closely for upward price adjustments. Meanwhile, international wheat offers from key exporters such as Ukraine, France, and the US remain steady, with only minor fluctuations. Weather conditions in major breadbaskets remain a crucial factor for upcoming yield prospects, with any adverse updates likely to spark renewed volatility. As stocks remain tight in several regions and speculative activity stays cautious, the outlook suggests a potentially firmer undertone in the near term, especially if demand remains strong.

📈 Wheat Prices: Key Exchange Benchmarks

Market	Type	Latest Price	Currency	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT (Chicago)	Futures (Sep)	$5.17	USD/bushel	+0.33¢	Neutral-to-Positive
Rajkot (IN)	Physical (Mill grade)	$21.60	USD/20 kg	Stable	Firm/Steady
Gondal (IN)	High Quality	$14.40–$14.60	USD/10 kg	Stable	Firm
Kyiv (UA)	11.5% protein, FCA	€0.24	EUR/kg	No change	Neutral
Odesa (UA)	11.5% protein, FCA	€0.25	EUR/kg	No change	Neutral
Paris (FR)	11% protein, FOB	€0.28	EUR/kg	No change	Neutral
Washington D.C. (US)	CBOT, FOB	€0.22	EUR/kg	No change	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• India: Steady mill demand despite limited arrivals supports local prices. With inventories running lower after a prolonged procurement season and no major releases expected, near-term supplies may remain tight.
• Global: Ukrainian and French offers are flat, reflecting cautious optimism after recent harvest disruptions. US wheat remains competitive, aided by improved weather and export outlooks.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains cautious, with net longs flat on CBOT contracts.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE indicates slight global stock tightening for 2024/25. Export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine revised higher, though adverse regional weather is a key ongoing risk.
• India: Domestic production has been affected by erratic weather, reducing replenishment rates. Gov’t stockpiles are below last year’s levels.
• Ukraine: Though logistics have improved, war disruptions could still affect volumes if the situation deteriorates.

🌦 Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent favorable rains but pockets of dryness in southern regions may curb yields. Harvest progress is ahead of average but below last season’s pace in some oblasts.
• India: Monsoon rains remain patchy across northern wheat belts, which could restrict late plantings and output potential.
• US/Canada: Plains and Midwest mostly favorable, expected to support healthy harvests; some hot spells could briefly limit gains.

📉 Global Production & Stocks Table

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)	2023/24 Stocks (Mt)
India	108	9	13
Russia	85	17	20
EU	131	15	18
Ukraine	21	3	4
US	48	14	16
China	137	139	143

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Hold existing positions if already long, as domestic and global prices are well supported by steady demand and seasonal supply tightness.
• Buy on minor dips for short-term traders, especially if mill demand in India persists and arrivals remain restricted.
• Monitor Indian government releases and weather developments closely; a sudden change could trigger volatility.
• EU and Black Sea region shipments should be watched for price arbitrage opportunities as logistics normalize.
• Exporters may find stable demand from Asia and North Africa if quality stays high and geopolitical risks remain contained.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Exchange	Direction	Forecast Range
CBOT	Chicago	⬆️	$5.15 – $5.22 USD/bushel
Paris (MATIF)	Euronext	➡️	€0.27 – €0.29 EUR/kg
Odesa (UA)	Physical	➡️	€0.24 – €0.26 EUR/kg
Rajkot (IN)	Physical	⬆️	$21.60 – $21.80 USD/20 kg