The global black pepper market is entering a period of sustained strength as a convergence of unfavorable weather in southern India, lower yield forecasts, and robust domestic and international demand tighten the outlook. Recent intense sunshine and erratic rainfall in Kerala—the heart of India’s black pepper sector—have sharply reduced crop prospects, with projections now pointing to yields 20–25% below normal. Traders are reporting bullish sentiment, expecting continued price firmness driven by reduced arrivals and active buying from both processors and exporters. In the spot markets, this mood is palpable: high-quality pepper has climbed to ₹680–690/kg ($8.15–8.25/kg),
while exporters view a near-term band of ₹715–720/kg ($8.55–8.65/kg) as increasingly likely amid strong global demand. Internationally, key exporting countries Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil face tightening stocks as well, limiting potential downward corrections and adding to positive price momentum. Both Indian and Vietnamese FOB offers reflect this uptrend, with prices steady and no significant corrections anticipated. As the festival season approaches in India and export interest remains elevated, the outlook stays distinctly bullish—barring a dramatic improvement in crop output or a surprise in weather patterns.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Pepper
black 600 g/l, clean
FOB 6.38 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, faq
FOB 6.00 €/kg
(from VN)
Pepper
black 550 g/l, clean
FOB 6.08 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.38 | 6.38 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| Black 550 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.00 | 6.00 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| Black 550 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.08 | 6.08 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| Black 500 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 5.80 | 5.80 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
| Black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.10 | 6.10 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| Black, 5 mm, extra bold | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.50 | 6.50 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| Pepper powder (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 8.75 | 8.75 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| White whole (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 7.02 | 7.02 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| Green dehydrated (organic) | LK | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | FOB | 8.45 | 8.45 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| Black whole 500 g/l (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 8.05 | 8.05 | 2025-08-14 | Firm |
| Black 500 g/l, clean | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.59 | 5.59 | 2025-08-14 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Kerala’s crop expected down 20–25% due to adverse weather and prior pest/disease stress.
- Vietnam: Lower carryover stock; export demand remains steady, providing a strong price base.
- Indonesia & Brazil: Exporters hold limited stock and are unlikely to pressure prices lower in the short term.
- Domestic (India): Festive and export demand is stimulating active buying and inventory buildup.
- Global: International consumption remains strong, especially as buyers anticipate tight supplies in the months ahead.
📊 Fundamentals
- Weather: Intense sunshine and unpredictable rains in Southern India are the leading factors behind the current market strength.
- Crop Prospects: Market consensus is for a notable shortfall in India, the world’s fourth largest producer.
- Inventories: Tighter stocks—both in India and globally—are preventing downside price movement.
- Speculative Interest: No clear signs of excessive speculation; market is responding fundamentally to supply and demand trends.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Kerala (India): Forecasts indicate continued higher-than-average daytime temperatures and sporadic rainfall, likely exacerbating plant stress and hindering fruit development.
- Vietnam (Central Highlands): Moderately dry outlook for the week, but no immediate threats reported for flowering or early fruit set after the last monsoon ended with adequate moisture.
- Indonesia (Lampung): Seasonal patterns remain close to normal, with regular showers reported but spotty dry spells could be emerging.
Impact Analysis: The risk for further crop downgrades in India persists if current weather patterns hold, possibly tightening the market further as the Indian harvest approaches.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est., t) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (est., t) |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 195,000 | 30,000 |
| India | 53,000 (↓) | 11,000 |
| Indonesia | 36,000 | 6,000 |
| Brazil | 50,000 | 13,000 |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish cues predominate; traders should consider maintaining long positions with prudent stops.
- Exporters may benefit from forward bookings at prevailing prices or on further dips if any weather improvement appears.
- Importers should remain cautious and consider phased buying through the next 2–4 weeks to hedge against further spikes.
- Domestic users advised to secure stocks early for festive and winter demand coverage.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB, EUR/kg)
| Region/Type | Current Price | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VN Black 600 g/l, clean | 6.38 | 6.40 | 6.45 | 6.50 |
| VN Black 550 g/l, clean | 6.08 | 6.10 | 6.12 | 6.15 |
| IN Black whole 500 g/l (organic) | 8.05 | 8.07 | 8.10 | 8.15 |
| IN Black 500 g/l, clean | 5.59 | 5.62 | 5.65 | 5.68 |
