Turmoil is rippling across the global nuts market as a severe spring frost ravaged Turkey’s 2025 hazelnut crop—an event with far-reaching effects for confectionery giants and nut traders worldwide. As the world’s largest hazelnut supplier, Turkey normally ensures market stability, but an April cold snap has cut yields by over 22%, slashing production from initial forecasts of 750,000 tons to merely 601,000 tons in-shell. With Turkish hazelnut futures skyrocketing beyond 200 lira (US$4.91) per kilogram and international spot prices trading as high as US$10 per kilo—a surge of over 35% from pre-frost levels—downstream industries are on edge. Producers like Ferrero, which uses roughly one-quarter of the global hazelnut output for brands such as Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, face escalating input costs and mounting pressure to adjust pricing or recipes.
Supply constraints are pushing buyers to explore sources in Chile, Georgia, and the United States, but experts stress these regions cannot fully compensate for Turkish shortfalls. Weather volatility adds another layer of uncertainty, threatening not just hazelnuts but also other nuts such as almonds and walnuts. The sharp upward momentum in the market underscores the urgency for both risk managers and buyers: Strategic sourcing, inventory buildup, and heightened pricing vigilance are now paramount as global nut fundamentals shift.
📈 Prices
| Nut | Origin | Location | Exchange | Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazelnuts (futures) | Turkey | Ordu | Local Spot | €5.93* | +35% | Bullish |
| Brazil nuts | Netherlands | Dordrecht | CMBroker | €6.58 | 0% | Neutral |
| Almonds (futures) | USA | California | ICE | €5.10* | +2% | Firming |
*Currency converted. Spot and futures prices reflect most recent reported settlements and market quotes as of August 16, 2025.
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Turkey’s 2025 hazelnut output: Down 22%, now forecast at 601,000 tons (source: INC), vs. earlier 750,000t. TurkStat’s estimate of 520,000t highlights ongoing uncertainty.
- Ferrero: Uses ~25% of the global hazelnut crop. Maintains production continuity for Nutella & premium brands thanks to supply diversification.
- Brazil nuts: Stable supplies with little recent price movement in Europe.
- Alternative Hazelnut Suppliers: Chile, Georgia, and USA (Oregon) face limited capacity and slow orchard expansion (5–7 years to maturity).
- Strong global demand from confectionery, bakery, and snacking sectors supports further price strength.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weather: Record spring frost in April was the main cause of yield losses.
- USDA/INC Reports: Production sharply revised lower; supply side uncertainty persists due to climate risks.
- Speculation: Delayed pricing announcements by Turkish export board in prior years led to volatility and hoarding, with potential for a repeat this season.
- Inventory: No evidence of excess stocks; global inventory running tight, amplifying the impact of the Turkish shortfall.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Turkey (Black Sea): Short-term weather is moderate, but long-range forecasts show increased risk of rainfall variability, which could compound disease pressure during harvest. No further frost currently forecast.
- Oregon (USA): Below-average precipitation and higher-than-average temperatures could limit filling and reduce kernel sizes for hazelnuts, though no major cold events expected.
- Chile/Georgia: Mild weather; suitable conditions for developing orchards but not enough capacity to offset Turkish losses this season.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025F Output (tons in-shell) | Market Share | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 601,000 | ~70% | Severe frost impact |
| Italy | 90,000 | ~10% | Steady crop |
| USA (Oregon) | 53,000 | ~6% | Limited growth |
| Georgia | 14,000 | ~2% | Insufficient to meet shortfall |
| Chile | 10,000 | ~1% | Emerging supplier |
📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy
- Buyers: Consider forward contracts or inventory buildup as upside risk persists into late 2025.
- Sellers: Opportunity for price premiums in the spot and near-term forward markets; leverage tight supply for negotiation.
- Risk Managers: Monitor further weather events and Turkish crop updates; watch for moves by major buyers and government trade interventions.
- End-users: Explore blend innovations or alternate nut sourcing to mitigate price increases; anticipate recipe reformulations amongst major brands.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | Product | Current Price | 1D Forecast | 3D Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Spot | Hazelnut | €5.93/kg | +1.3% | +3.8% |
| CMBroker (NL) | Brazil nut | €6.58/kg | 0% | 0% |
| ICE (CA) | Almond | €5.10/kg | +0.4% | +1.3% |
Note: Price projections are indicative based on current supply scenarios and weather outlook. Hazelnut volatility expected to remain elevated.
