The global corn market is on the threshold of a major supply shift as Argentina gears up for unprecedented sowing levels in the 2025–26 season. According to the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR), Argentine farmers are forecasted to plant a record 22.6 million hectares of corn, a substantial leap from previous years. This rapid expansion comes amid ideal weather conditions and robust export demand, especially from Asia and Africa.
With production likely to exceed 49 million metric tons, Argentina will solidify its role as a crucial supplier in world corn trade. Such surging output holds the potential to temper upward pressure on global corn prices, but ongoing export strength and shifting weather patterns across major regions, including the US Midwest and Eastern Europe, mean volatility remains a key risk. For market participants, understanding both Argentina’s relentless growth and global weather trends is vital, as this will shape future price movements, export flows, and regional competitiveness.
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Popcorn
FCA 0.75 €/kg
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FOB 0.82 €/kg
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Corn
yellow
FOB 0.24 €/kg
(from FR)
📈 Prices: Corn Market Overview
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Popcorn | BR | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 0.75 | 0.75 | 2025-08-21 | Neutral |
| Popcorn (Exp. 40/42) | AR | Buenos Aires, AR | FOB | 0.82 | 0.82 | 2025-08-21 | Neutral |
| Corn (Yellow) | FR | Paris, FR | FOB | 0.24 | 0.25 | 2025-08-21 | Bearish |
| Corn (Starch, Organic) | IN | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 1.92 | 1.94 | 2025-08-21 | Bearish |
| Corn | UA | Odesa, UA | FOB | 0.20 | 0.20 | 2025-08-21 | Neutral |
| Corn (Yellow Feed, 98% Purity) | UA | Odesa, UA | FCA | 0.26 | 0.26 | 2025-08-14 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Drivers & Developments
- Argentina: Record projected sowings (22.6 million ha for 2025–26) on strong rainfall and export prospects; output seen at 49 million metric tons.
- US: Stable acreage but yield risk due to summer heat and storm variation in the Midwest.
- Ukraine: Stable exports despite ongoing conflict; shipping challenges remain but production seen as resilient.
- Asia & Africa: Demand remains robust as economies recover and food security takes center stage.
- Speculator Positioning: Net short positions moderating on CBOT as supply outlook improves.
📊 Fundamentals: Global Production & Stocks
| Region/Country | 2023–24 Area (Mha) | 2024–25 Area (Mha) | 2025–26 Area (Mha) | 2025–26 Production (MMT) | 2025–26 Exports (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 21.1 | 21.7 | 22.6 | 49.0 | 49.0 |
| USA | 37.1 | est. 36.8 | est. 36.5 | est. 384.5 | est. 62.0 |
| Brazil | 23.7 | 23.9 | 23.5 | est. 125.0 | est. 52.0 |
| Ukraine | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 | est. 29.0 | est. 26.5 |
- High production in top exporters is cushioning stocks. However, any weather incident could quickly tighten markets.
- Argentina’s stock-to-use ratio projected to improve, reinforcing its export capacity.
- Global ending stocks expected at moderate levels due to continued high demand.
☀️ Weather Outlook in Key Regions
- Argentina: Above-average rainfall and mild temperatures continue, supporting optimal sowing—a positive driver for yield projections.
- US Midwest: Recent thunderstorms brought some relief from drought stress, but persistent heatwaves forecast to challenge pollination and grain fill stages in July–August.
- Ukraine & Eastern Europe: Weather mostly favorable, but monitor for late-season drought risk.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Prices have edged lower in Europe and India as global stocks improve; bearish bias prevails short term.
- Argentina’s record sowing creates downward price pressure, especially if weather stays supportive.
- Monitor US weather and Chinese import policy for any reversal in trend.
- Traders may favor gradual sales or hedges on any rallies due to ample supply prospects.
- End-users should consider extending coverage towards year-end as risk of volatility in Northern Hemisphere harvest grows.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location/Exchange | Product | Price Trend | Forecast (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris (Euronext) | Corn (Yellow) | ⬇️ Slightly Lower | 0.23 – 0.24 |
| Odesa (FOB/FCA) | Corn | ➡️ Stable | 0.20 – 0.21 |
| Buenos Aires (FOB) | Popcorn (Exp. 40/42) | ➡️ Stable | 0.81 – 0.83 |
Market sentiment: Bearish near-term, cautious optimism for 2026 on robust Argentine exports and weather resilience.
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