Millet Market Momentum: FCI’s Procurement Surge and Price Dynamics Shape 2025 Outlook

The global millet market enters the 2025 Kharif marketing year with renewed momentum as government interventions, procurement surges, and shifting fundamentals reshape the landscape. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has, for the first time, initiated direct procurement of finger millet (Ragi) from Odisha, securing 2,642 metric tonnes and targeting a robust 40,000 MT by year’s end. This move underpins both food security ambitions and the growing prominence of millets in India’s nutritional agenda, especially among tribal communities.

At the same time, current export prices from Ukraine, China, and Poland signal steady demand for various millet types—organic and conventional—while weather in North India and main supplier regions like Ukraine and China remains a key factor for yield prospects in the coming months. As buyers and stakeholders eye the impact of FCI’s large-scale procurement, global supply and trade flows interact with speculative sentiment and weather–driven uncertainties.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

Product	Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Link
Millet seeds	UA	hulled, yellow		No	FOB	0.19	0.18	2025-08-21	View
Millet kernels	CN	hulled, yellow	99.90%	Yes	FOB	0.81	0.80	2025-08-20	View
Millet kernels	CN	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	FOB	0.74	0.72	2025-08-20	View
Millet seeds	UA	inshell, red	98%	No	FCA	0.24	0.24	2025-08-14	View
Millet seeds	UA	inshell, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.24	0.24	2025-08-14	View
Millet kernels	UA	hulled, yellow	99%	Yes	FCA	1.20	1.20	2025-08-14	View
Millet kernels	UA	hulled, yellow	98%	No	FCA	0.40	0.40	2025-08-14	View
Millet seeds	PL	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	FCA	0.44	0.45	2025-08-06	View

• Market Sentiment: Slightly bullish in India due to heavy procurement; stable to mildly firmer in EU/Asian export markets following steady demand.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India: FCI’s initiated procurement of 2,642 MT finger millet (Ragi) from Odisha is a milestone, targeting 40,000 MT for PDS supply. Odisha produced 75,000 MT Ragi in 2024–25, highlighting substantial domestic availability but with a significant portion now destined for buffer stocks.
• Global: China and Ukraine remain steady exporters. Organic millet from CN fetches a notable premium (EUR 0.81/kg), reflecting specialty demand in Europe and Asia. Conventional millet in Ukraine hovers at EUR 0.19–0.44/kg, with slight increases noted recently.
• Consumption Trends: Millet’s profile as a resilient, climate-smart grain is rising, particularly as part of government food programs and growing health-conscious markets in Europe and North America.
• Inventory: FCI’s active stock build is tightening available supplies locally, which could support prices in India if procurement targets are met quickly.

📊 Market Fundamentals & External Influences

• Policy: Strong government backing for millet underlines ongoing policy support in India – both for farmer incomes and nutritional security. Interventions elsewhere remain limited, with private sector leading in major export origins.
• Speculative Positioning: No significant hedge fund or speculative activity is noted in millet, but forward contracts for organic product are reportedly strong in major consuming countries (Germany, France, Japan).
• Comparative Analysis: Compared to last season, spot price growth for conventional millet is moderate, though premiums for organic and high-purity product remain firm.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Analysis

• India (Odisha): Current weather patterns are broadly favorable with regular rainfall supporting sowing and early growth. Monsoon progress is good, with no major stress reported in Koraput, Nabarangpur, and adjacent districts. Should monsoon patterns hold, yields should at least match last season’s healthy outcome.
• Ukraine: Forecasts suggest a neutral-to-positive outlook: moderate temperatures and stable precipitation support growth, with no major adverse events expected in the near term.
• China: Seasonally typical; no drought or excessive flooding reported. Consistent production likely.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (MT)*	2024/25 Output (MT)**	Main Use
India	~10,500,000	~10,600,000 (est.)	Human food, PDS, animal feed
China	2,320,000	2,350,000	Export, Feed
Nigeria	1,900,000	1,950,000	Food staple
Ukraine	200,000	200,000	Export
EU (Est.)	70,000	75,000	Specialty health food

*USDA/FAO, **Industry/analyst estimates

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📊 Buyers: Consider securing forward contracts, especially for organic and specialty grades, as premiums are stable and speculative buying is limited. Monitor Indian government procurement timelines for any risk to conventional supply tightness.
• 📊 Sellers (India): Large-volume procurement via FCI could create short-term price spikes if pace accelerates. Favor gradual selling into government programs where premiums are available.
• 📊 Exporters (Ukraine/China/Poland): Expect stable to slightly firmer prices as demand persists. Maintain flexibility for freight and logistical adjustments amid ongoing Black Sea geopolitics.
• 📊 Risk Watch: Weather remains a moderate risk in South Asia/Eastern Europe. Track El Niño–linked patterns for potential late-season yield shifts.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Ukraine (FOB Odesa)	0.19	0.19 – 0.20	Steady to firmer
China (FOB Beijing, organic)	0.81	0.81 – 0.82	Stable
India (spot, Ragi)	n/a (domestic market)	Slightly higher if procurement intensifies	Bullish in short term
Poland (FCA Kiełczygłow)	0.44	0.44 – 0.45	Stable to soft

Forecasts based on prevailing procurement trends, supply flows, and weather.