Vietnam Surges as Second-Largest Rice Exporter: Market Outlook, Prices, and Key Drivers

The global rice market is undergoing a pivotal transformation in 2025, with Vietnam decisively surpassing Thailand to secure its rank as the world’s second-largest rice exporter in the first half of the year. Strong export momentum, particularly for premium varieties such as OM, DT8, and ST, has elevated Vietnamese rice in key markets, including the Philippines and numerous African countries. Despite an 18.4% fall in average export prices year-on-year, Vietnam exported over 4.7 million tons of rice between January and June, generating USD 2.44 billion in revenue.

By July, exports had climbed to 5.5 million tons, underlining robust demand and a shift in market power. However, total export value declined by 15.9% compared to last year, reflecting the pressure of lower prices even as volumes rise. With Africa importing 1 million tons in six months and the Vietnam Food Association projecting a record 8.8 million tons in exports by year-end, the competitive landscape for global rice trade is shifting rapidly. Market participants must monitor evolving trade routes, currency movements, and changing weather patterns, especially as payment risks and market stability issues challenge new growth in Africa and established markets remain critical for expansion. Read on for a comprehensive analysis of pricing, supply and demand dynamics, global stocks, and forward-looking market recommendations.

📈 Rice Prices & Market Overview

Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/MT, FOB)	Change (WoW)	Last Updated	Sentiment
IN	All golden, sella	New Delhi	1.05	–	2025-08-14	Stable
IN	All steam, pr11	New Delhi	0.56	–	2025-08-14	Stable
IN	Al Isteam, sharbati	New Delhi	0.71	–	2025-08-14	Stable
VN	Red	Hanoi	0.91	–	2025-08-14	Steady-premium
VN	Long, white, 5%	Hanoi	0.62	–	2025-08-14	Steady
VN	Jasmine	Hanoi	0.64	–	2025-08-14	Steady
VN	Japonica	Hanoi	0.74	–	2025-08-14	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Vietnam’s Export Leadership: From Jan–Jun 2025: 4.7 million tons (over 5.5m by July).
• Thailand’s Decline: Only 3.73 million tons in same period, marking a 27% YoY drop.
• Shifting Trade Focus: Bulk exports moving to high-value varieties, supporting Vietnamese competitiveness.
• Key Demand Regions: Philippines, Africa (>1m tons from Vietnam), with diversified growth expected in Japan and South Korea.
• Risks: Africa presents payment risks, demanding robust financial mechanisms for sustained trade expansion.

📊 Global Fundamentals & Comparative Data

Country	2025F Exports (million tons)	Major Importers
India	~14	Africa, Middle East, SE Asia
Vietnam	8.8	Philippines, Africa, East Asia
Thailand	~7.5	Asia, Africa
Paksitan	~4.5	Africa, Middle East

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Vietnam: Current monsoon rains generally favorable for main crop maturity, but flash floods risk in Mekong Delta (watch for potential short-term logistics problems if rains intensify).
• Thailand: Drought persists in certain northeast provinces; crop yields may see further reduction through Q3.
• India: Monsoon slightly below average. Continued deficit could tighten exportable surplus, but rain recovery expected in late August could stabilize yields.
• Global: No major El Niño/La Niña disruptions forecasted; neutral to slightly positive impact for upcoming harvest.

🕵️‍♂️ Market Drivers

• Shift to Premium Rice: Focus on OM, DT8, ST varieties gains higher unit value and broadens export appeal.
• USD Strength: Firmer US dollar against Asian currencies impacting competitiveness by reducing import prices in some importing regions.
• Bumper Crop Prospects: Vietnam’s main harvest projections remain robust, but weather and logistics remain key short-term variables.
• Stock Levels: Global stocks comfortable; India export policies remain a wild card for spot and forward prices.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor premium segment pricing: Vietnamese varieties continue to outperform bulk markets. Watch for price stabilization as harvest peaks.
• Exporters should hedge payment risks, especially when targeting emerging African buyers.
• Indian exporters: Monitor monsoon progress closely; any persistent deficit likely to support global prices.
• Importers: Secure contracts for premium Vietnamese varieties as regional competition tightens on high-quality stocks.
• Watch Thai supply: Prolonged drought may further cut exportable surplus and support prices later in the year.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/MT)	Forecast Trend (3d)	Comment
Hanoi FOB	Jasmine	0.64	⬆️ Lightly bullish	Strong regional demand
New Delhi FOB	All Golden, Sella	1.05	➡️ Stable	Solid stocks, steady trade
Hanoi FOB	Long, white, 5%	0.62	➡️ Stable	Sufficient supply
Hanoi FOB	Red	0.91	⬆️ Mildly bullish	Firm African interest