Nutmeg Market Stagnates: Prices Flat Amid Weak Demand in India

The nutmeg market continues to show signs of inertia, with prices remaining weak in wholesale markets despite consistent but unremarkable demand. This week in Delhi, prices hovered around $8.28 per kg, registering only minor upward ticks of $0.18–$0.24 per kg. Yet, these gains have not been enough to reignite optimism among traders or to meaningfully impact overall sentiment. The subdued pace of trading – shaped largely by a lack of significant consumer demand and tepid buying interest – has set the tone for a market that appears resistant to upward movement.

Even with marginal price improvements, the underlying mood is one of caution as participants await clearer signals of demand recovery or sustained buying momentum. Given these dynamics, nutmeg prices are anticipated to remain flat in the near future, with little evidence suggesting a bounce-back is on the horizon. For traders and processors, the coming days will likely be characterized by cautious positioning and a focus on managing inventory rather than chasing price rises.

📈 Latest Nutmeg Prices

Name	Type	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Last Update	Offer Link
Nutmeg whole	without shell	Yes	New Delhi, IN	FOB	12.5	12.4	2025-08-23	View
Nutmeg whole	without shell	No	New Delhi, IN	FOB	6.55	6.45	2025-08-23	View
Nutmeg	powder	Yes	New Delhi, IN	FOB	12.4	12.3	2025-08-23	View

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Consumption: Demand remains steady, but below what is needed to boost prices.
• Wholesale market sentiment: Overall weak, with buyers and sellers cautious and hesitant to build new positions.
• Speculative activity: Limited, given flat price trends and subdued volumes.

📊 Fundamentals & External Factors

• India continues to be a key supplier, with New Delhi setting benchmark prices for regional trade.
• Currencies: The USD and EUR exchange rates remain stable, minimizing external pressure on export prices.
• No significant disruptions reported in logistics or freight, keeping the market structure steady.
• Market participants point to ongoing weak consumer appetite post-holiday season.

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• India: Monsoon rains have remained within seasonal norms, maintaining favorable moisture levels for nutmeg trees in key producing states like Kerala. No reports of extreme weather affecting the crop in recent weeks.
• Southeast Asia (notably Indonesia): Weather has been generally stable, with typical rainfall. Threats from El Niño/La Niña appear muted for the coming weeks, reducing risk of supply shocks.
• Forecast: Neutral to positive for yield; any unexpected excess rainfall or drought in September could impact output but is not currently expected.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Estimated 2024 Production (tonnes)	Stock Position	Import Needs
India	17,000	Moderate	Low
Indonesia	45,000	High	Very Low
Sri Lanka	2,000	Moderate	Moderate
EU	—	Low	High
USA	—	Low	High

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Continue to monitor local and wholesale demand closely as the primary driver for any price change.
• Hedge existing inventory to avoid losses from further potential price stagnation.
• Buyers may wait for clearer demand signals before rebuilding stocks in bulk; opportunistic purchases only if significant discounts emerge.
• Sellers advised to maintain moderate stock levels and avoid overcommitting in a flat market.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (New Delhi FOB)

Date	Nutmeg Whole (Organic) EUR/kg	Nutmeg Whole (Conventional) EUR/kg	Nutmeg Powder (Organic) EUR/kg
Day 1	12.5	6.55	12.4
Day 2	12.5	6.54	12.4
Day 3	12.5	6.54	12.4

Note: Prices are expected to remain flat given continued low demand and no apparent supply disruption.