The global cumin market stands resilient, with prices showing impressive stability despite recent fluctuations. Traders and analysts note that the current benchmark price in the spot market is anchored at USD 252.60 per quintal (approx. USD 21,000 per metric tonne). After a slight uptick of USD 2.40 per quintal in the last session, cumin’s price trajectory confirms its underlying strength despite lighter trading volumes. The futures market mirrors this positivity, closing at USD 255.20 per quintal and recording a 1.07% session gain.
This momentum is driven by persistent export demand, restricted arrivals, and restrained stockist selling. Near-term price outlooks suggest stability, as supplies are expected to strengthen shortly, but prevailing demand-supply imbalances are likely to keep prices buoyant. Comparisons with prior reports confirm that the cumin market continues its pattern of resilience and range-bound movement, with no signs of price erosion.
📈 Cumin Prices at a Glance
| Product | Origin | Purity | Organic | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin seeds, grade – A | IN | 98% | No | New Delhi | FOB | 2.21 | 2.21 | 2025-08-23 |
| Cumin seeds | IN | 98% | No | Gujarat – Unjha | FOB | 2.36 | 2.36 | 2025-08-23 |
| Cumin seeds | IN | 99% | No | New Delhi | FOB | 2.37 | 2.37 | 2025-08-23 |
| Cumin seeds, whole, Grade A | IN | Yes | New Delhi | FOB | 5.18 | 5.18 | 2025-08-23 | |
| Cumin seeds, grade – A | IN | 99% | No | New Delhi | FOB | 2.36 | 2.36 | 2025-08-23 |
| Cumin seeds | EG | 99.9% | No | Kairo | FOB | 4.85 | 4.88 | 2025-08-22 |
| Cumin seeds, black, grade – A | EG | No | Kairo | FOB | 2.18 | 2.18 | 2025-08-22 | |
| Cumin seed | SY | No | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 4.00 | 4.15 | 2025-08-21 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Export Demand: Remains firm, with Indian exports supporting steady price levels despite marginally weaker arrivals.
- Arrivals: Lower arrivals reported recently; expected to improve in the coming weeks, but not enough to shift the current market balance significantly.
- Stockist Behavior: Cautious selling by stockists is limiting supply pressure and helping maintain price firmness.
- Market Sentiment: Positive, bolstered by export order fulfillment and limited immediate selling pressure.
📊 Fundamental Data & Market Drivers
- Benchmark Price: USD 252.60 per quintal; spot and futures both show minor gains.
- Futures Contracts: Closed at USD 255.20 per quintal (+1.07%).
- Trading Volumes: Slightly down but within normal seasonal ranges for this time of year.
- Recent USDA and Indian Export Data: Confirms continued steady overseas demand; export volumes aligned with multi-year averages.
- Key Drivers: Weather prospects for new crop, export activity, stockist behavior, and on-ground arrivals.
☀️ Weather Outlook for Key Origins
- India (Gujarat, Rajasthan): Both regions report near-normal monsoon patterns, supporting healthy crop development. No major weather-caused yield risks expected in the next 10 days.
- Egypt: Mild temperatures and adequate irrigation support strong crop growth; harvest quality expected to be good barring unusual weather events.
- Syria: Weather conditions stable, but political and logistical risks continue to weigh on export flows.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India: World’s leading cumin producer/exporter, supplying 70%+ of global exports; current stocks are tight but expected to ease with upcoming harvest arrivals.
- Egypt: Strong quality crop expected, but higher prices compared to India may dampen global competitiveness.
- Syria: Supplies limited due to persistent export and freight constraints.
- Stocks: Overall global inventory remains tight but is not at historical lows. Localized shortages may persist until new arrivals peak.
🕵️ Market Drivers & Outlook
- Short-term: Cumin prices expected to hold within a tight range due to robust export demand and slow arrivals, with no evidence of a near-term price crash.
- Medium-term: Any significant change will depend on the pace of new crop arrivals and whether export offtake maintains current momentum.
- Speculative Interest: Limited speculative activity; market remains fundamentally driven.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 Buy on Dips: With resilient pricing and no imminent downside, opportunistic short-term buying is recommended at lower levels.
- 📌 Monitor Arrivals: Watch for increases in spot market arrivals, which could trigger slight price corrections.
- 📌 Exports Focus: Exporters should continue to cover forward requirements, as global demand remains reliable.
- 📌 Limited Downside: Maintain existing inventory if possible; panic selling is unwarranted.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Exchange/Market | Current Price (USD/quintal) | 3-day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (Unjha) | Spot | 252.60 | 252-256 | Stable/Bullish |
| India (Futures) | NCDEX | 255.20 | 254-258 | Stable |
| Egypt (FOB) | Export | 4.85 EUR/kg | 4.80-4.90 | Slightly Bearish |
Overall, the cumin market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience with steady support at current levels. Exporters, importers, and traders are encouraged to monitor supply-side dynamics closely and capitalize on price dips where possible.
