After a challenging rainy spell that initially threatened the chilli crop in Gujarat, recent weeks have brought a wave of relief to farmers and traders alike. Favorable weather has delivered a vital boost to chilli cultivation, with major production areas like Rajkot, Gondal, Jetpur, and Jamnagar now eyeing a much-improved harvest. As green chilli fields recover, arrivals in local markets have picked up. However, demand remains vibrant, especially with the festive season sustaining strong consumption. Prices are showing stability, ticking upwards from pre-Janmashtami levels in response to both revived supply and resilient demand. Agricultural experts forecast further improvements, provided current weather patterns hold, while also cautioning that rainfall in the upcoming weeks could introduce ongoing volatility. For now, Gujarat’s chilli market appears poised for steady performance, even as all eyes remain on the sky for the next move in this dynamic story.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.71 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
powder, grade a
FOB 4.45 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.42 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird eye, grade A (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 4.70 | 4.75 | -0.05 | Neutral |
| Chilli dried powder | Powder, grade A (organic) | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 4.44 | 4.49 | -0.05 | Neutral |
| Chilli dried flakes | Flakes, grade A (organic) | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 4.41 | 4.46 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Chilli dried | With stem (conventional) | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 2.20 | 2.25 | -0.05 | Stable |
| Chilli dried | Whole, stemless, grade A (conventional) | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 2.23 | 2.28 | -0.05 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Favorable weather in Gujarat’s chilli belt (Rajkot, Gondal, Jetpur, Jamnagar) has resulted in significant crop recovery.
- Earlier damage from excessive rainfall has been largely reversed, supporting an optimistic crop outlook.
- Green chilli arrivals have increased in local markets; demand remains robust due to festival-related consumption, helping hold prices steady.
- Chilli prices have firmed up from pre-Janmashtami levels, currently trading at USD 3.6–3.7/kg versus USD 3.5/kg before the festival.
📊 Fundamentals
- Crop health in Gujarat is improving; overall anticipated production is up for the coming weeks.
- India’s southern states (notably Andhra Pradesh) remain the main supply source for dried, powdered, and flaked chilli varieties.
- Ongoing demand from processors and exporters, particularly for high-quality organic and grade-A products.
- Market fundamentals are currently balanced, but remain sensitive to changing rainfall patterns and potential logistical disruptions.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Near-term weather in Gujarat remains conducive for chilli development, with moderate rainfall and manageable temperatures forecasted for the next week.
- Next 7 days: Mostly dry to partly cloudy; isolated showers possible mainly in western talukas. No major risks for disease or flooding anticipated.
- A return to heavy, unseasonal rain could alter market stability and yield expectations, but the probability remains low for now.
🌏 Global Comparison & Stocks
- India remains the world’s largest producer, exporter, and consumer of chillies.
- Major export destinations: USA, China, Bangladesh, Middle East, and Europe.
- Chinese chilli prices have remained relatively firm, driven by stable domestic consumption and tight stocks; no significant changes in global trade flows recently.
- Global inventories are adequate; notable increases in arrivals reported in Indian northern and western markets.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Favor gradual selling into the current price band during the seasonal peak; hold remaining stocks if favorable weather persists.
- Traders: Price dips after fresh arrivals offer a strategic buying opportunity, especially for premium grades (organic, grade A).
- Exporters: Stable global prices encourage forward contracts; monitor Indian supply closely for sudden weather-driven shifts.
- Watch for: Any sign of renewed rainfall or supply bottlenecks, which could prompt a swift price response.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Today (EUR/kg) | Day 2 (EUR/kg) | Day 3 (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gujarat Green Chilli (Spot) | 3.65 | 3.68 | 3.70 | Firm |
| New Delhi (FOB Dried Whole, Organic) | 4.70 | 4.72 | 4.75 | Steady |
| Andhra Pradesh (FOB Powder/Flakes) | 4.44 | 4.45 | 4.48 | Stable |
