Wheat Market Holds Steady Amid Softer Global Futures and Cautious Domestic Demand

The international and domestic wheat markets have entered a period of notable price stability, buoyed by consistent supply flows and subdued volatility across primary trading centers. Over the past week, prices have remained confined within a tight band, as both local and global players navigate a landscape marked by cautious optimism. In India, particularly in key trading centers like Ahmedabad, Himatnagar, Rajkot, Gondal, and Surat, wheat prices stayed firm in the $386–$390 per ton range despite steady arrivals and slightly underwhelming mill demand. Many traders attribute this stability to the restrained purchase activity from flour mills, but with the festive season approaching, anticipation of renewed buying could underpin prices and avert any near-term sell-off.

Globally, wheat prices also exhibited a soft undertone, particularly at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), which registered a minor dip of 0.08% amid tepid import demand. This gentle decline in export quotations has trickled down to Indian markets, putting a cap on upward moves despite unswerving domestic supply. Analysts and market participants presently forecast muted volatility, with miller restocking and possible policy adjustments acting as the main wildcards for future direction. As such, conditions appear primed for a protracted period of tight-range trading unless there is a material uptick in demand or a significant shift in government procurement strategies.

📈 Market Prices

Exchange/Market	Specifications	Location	Latest Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Wheat, protein min. 11.50% (FOB)	Washington D.C., US	€0.23/kg	Stable	Soft/Bearish
Euronext	Wheat, protein min. 11.00% (FOB)	Paris, FR	€0.29/kg	Stable	Neutral
Black Sea	Wheat, protein min. 11.00% (FOB)	Odesa, UA	€0.20/kg	Stable	Neutral
Indian Spot	Wheat	Ahmedabad, Himatnagar, Rajkot, Gondal, Surat	$386–$390/ton	Stable	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Trends

• Domestic Arrivals: Steady, with daily arrivals between 200–250 truckloads across key Indian marts.
• Mill Demand: Currently modest, but widely expected to increase in the lead-up to the festive period—likely lending further price support.
• Exports: Limited in India due to recent government restrictions. Globally, export demand remains weak, particularly pressuring CBOT values.
• Inventories: Both Indian and global inventories are reported at satisfactory levels—pressuring rallies and underpinning price stability.

📊 Fundamental Drivers & Recent News

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE data point to ample global supply and modestly lower demand due to reduced feed use in some regions.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains cautious—net short on wheat futures, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment overseas.
• Government Policy: In India, procurement policies remain unchanged. No indication yet of relaxation in export controls.
• Comparative Review: Relative to the last report, price support has become more robust, with arrivals and demand closely balanced.

🌦 Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Monsoon activity remains favorable, supporting upcoming planting intentions for the Rabi crop. No major weather concerns reported in key growing areas.
• US & Europe: Some dryness persists in the US Northern Plains while conditions in France and Ukraine are moderate. Short-term forecasts signal normal to slightly above-normal temperatures, minimal risk to yield potential.
• Black Sea: Adequate rainfall supports yield projections for upcoming harvests in Ukraine and Russia.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	21/22 Output (Mt)	22/23 Output (Mt)	23/24F Output (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt, 23/24F)
China	137	137	138	140
India	109	104	106	17
Russia	75	95	90	20
EU	138	134	132	11
US	44	51	51	16
Ukraine	32	21	22	2

📆 3-Day Regional Price Outlook

• CBOT (US): Expected to remain soft, possibly in the €0.22–€0.23/kg range as global export demand recovers slowly.
• Euronext (Paris): Likely stable at €0.28–€0.30/kg due to steady regional demand and moderate weather conditions.
• Black Sea (Odesa): Prices to hold in the €0.19–€0.21/kg range as supply is adequate and shipping flows smoothly.
• India (Key Centers): Local prices expected to stay within $386–$390/ton. Watch for potential uptick if mill demand accelerates pre-festive season.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical buyers should maintain coverage at current price levels, especially ahead of anticipated festive demand in India.
• Millers are encouraged to assess inventory holdings, as renewed demand could tighten local stocks and nudge prices higher regionally.
• Exporters: Monitor government policy for any updates, particularly in India and Black Sea nations.
• Hedgers: Utilize stable options markets for short-term risk management as volatility remains suppressed.
• Producers: Favor forward contracts where possible to lock in margins as market remains rangebound.