The global garlic market has shown remarkable resilience in recent days, holding stable with only minor variations despite persistent weather disruptions. Moderate arrivals in key trading centers, reported at around 250 bags, underscore a situation where fresh supply continues to trickle in even as heavy rainfall threatens to cap overall volumes. Average-quality garlic is fetching between $38–$40 per 20 kg, while premium lots command as much as $45 per 20 kg. Notably, despite flash rainfall and regional logistical impediments, demand for garlic remains robust and consistent, helping keep prices within a tight band.
Market participants observe that although there have been challenges in the form of wet field conditions and transport delays, these have not yet morphed into pronounced price volatility. Instead, both buyers and sellers seem to be adjusting steadily to the new normal. Analysts and traders widely agree that unless the current spell of adverse weather intensifies significantly, price stability is likely to persist in the near term, making garlic one of the few agri-commodities to offer predictability amidst uncertainty.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Garlic
powder
FOB 6.63 €/kg
(from IN)
Garlic
fresh
FOB 1.00 €/kg
(from EG)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Type | Price (EUR/ton) | Weekly Change | Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garlic (powder, organic) | India | New Delhi | Powder | 6.63 | 0% | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Garlic (fresh) | Egypt | Cairo | Fresh | 1.00 | 0% | 2025-09-05 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- 🔄 Supply: Moderate increases in arrivals (approx. 250 bags) despite continuous rainfall. Heavy showers, however, limited the potential for larger supply inflows.
- 📦 Demand: Steady demand in retail and wholesale channels has helped support prices in both medium and premium segments.
- 🌧️ Weather: Ongoing rainfall in key growing regions of India and Egypt; monitoring continues as further weather disruptions could impact crop quality and delivery timelines.
- 📊 Market Behavior: Traders anticipate ongoing price stability unless aggravated weather conditions severely disrupt harvests and logistics.
📊 Fundamentals
| Region | 2024 Estimated Production (tons) | Inventory Levels | Export/Import Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1.6 million | Moderate | Net Exporter |
| China | ~24 million | High | Major Exporter |
| Egypt | 670,000 | Low-Moderate | Export Focused |
| EU | 320,000 | Moderate | Importer |
- 🌏 Global Context: China dominates global garlic production and exports. Developments in China can influence world prices, but current demand and weather-driven supply factors are mainly determining regional pricing.
- 📉 Storage and Inventories: India and Egypt maintain steady storage levels, limiting supply-driven price jumps for now.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- 🌦️ India: Intermittent to persistent moderate-to-heavy rainfall in northern and central zones; potential delay in field operations but little overall crop damage reported yet. If heavy rains persist, there could be minor quality loss in new arrivals.
- 🌞 Egypt: Stable weather with typical late-summer warmth; no major adverse effects on supply chain reported.
- 📢 Forecast Risk: Situation being tracked closely—any escalation in rainfall intensity could tighten supplies rapidly and trigger upward price adjustments.
📆 Market & Trading Outlook
- 🟢 Trading participants advised to maintain normal purchase schedules with limited short-term stockpiling, as further price stability is expected.
- 🟡 Buyers should monitor weather developments for any sudden changes that could affect pricing dynamics.
- 🔵 Forward contracts may be considered by processors and bulk buyers with high exposure to spot market volatility, as insurance against unpredictable supply disruptions.
- 🟠 Exporters can remain confident in maintaining offers close to current levels; importers should expect stable to moderately firm quotations.
- 🔴 No immediate speculative buying recommended unless exceptional weather-related news emerges.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Exchange/Market | Current Price (EUR/ton) | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India (Delhi) | Spot FOB | 6.63 | 6.63 | 6.65 | 6.66 | Stable/Mildly Firm |
| Egypt (Cairo) | Spot FOB | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.01 | Stable |
