The walnut market is facing a pivotal period as the 2025 harvest season begins in India’s key region of Kashmir, where over 95% of the country’s walnuts are produced. Growers in Anantnag, Kupwara, and Budgam districts highlight deep structural constraints in the supply chain, including a lack of local processing plants, organized markets, and effective branding.
These deficits leave Kashmiri walnuts—renowned for their superior oil content and organic cultivation—at a severe competitive disadvantage against cheaper, more efficiently marketed imports from California, Chile, and China. Imported walnuts, often selling at half the price of Kashmir’s premium varieties, continue to dominate the global landscape due to aggressive pricing, modern processing infrastructure, and advanced logistics. The urgent call from local growers is for targeted investments in market infrastructure, export facilitation, and branding support to restore the global standing of Kashmiri walnuts in both the premium and organic categories. The stakes are high, not just for economic reasons but also for preserving centuries-old traditions and a unique natural product revered throughout South Asia and beyond.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Walnut kernels
light quarter
FOB 3.40 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light amber pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.35 €/kg
(from CN)
Walnut kernels
light pieces, 8-12 mm
FOB 2.90 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Walnut Market Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Organic | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light halves | USA | London | Yes | FOB | 4.65 | 4.65 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Light halves | India (Kashmir) | New Delhi | Yes | FOB | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Light quarter | China | Dalian | No | FOB | 3.4 | 3.4 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Light amber pieces, 8-12mm | China | Dalian | No | FOB | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2025-09-06 | Stable/Soft |
| Light pieces, 8-12mm | China | Dalian | No | FOB | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
| Light broken, 4-8mm | China | Dalian | No | FOB | 3 | 3 | 2025-09-06 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Kashmir Harvest: 2025 harvest underway; majority of Indian crop centered here with high-value varieties like Wonth, Kaghazi, Barzul.
- Imports: California, Chile, and China supply extensive volumes at lower prices, drawing away export potential from India.
- Processing Gaps: Lack of local processing and market linkage in Kashmir raises costs and impedes competitiveness.
- Consumption Trends: Growing global demand for organic and high-oil-content nuts, segments where Kashmiri walnuts could excel with investment and branding.
📊 Fundamental Data & Global Stocks
| Country | Est. 2025 Crop (t) | Stocks (t) | Export Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA (California) | 620,000 | High | ~50 |
| China | 1,000,000 | Very High | 20-25 |
| India (Kashmir) | 35,000 | Limited | 2-3 |
| Chile | 170,000 | Moderate | 15 |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Kashmir, India: Current weather is conducive to harvesting with mild rainfall reported, but erratic monsoon patterns earlier in the year created some localized impacts on fruit set. Forecast indicates generally dry and mild temperatures over the next week, supporting optimal harvest and drying conditions.
- California, USA: Weather remains favorable for late harvest activities; water availability has improved after winter rains, bolstering 2025 output prospects.
- China: Cooler nights expected but no frost risks; harvest proceeding on schedule in key production areas.
📌 Market Drivers & Industry News
- USDA and Indian agricultural departments forecast stable-to-strong global walnut output in 2025, with India dependent on post-harvest handling and export efforts.
- Speculator activity stable; bulk of supply destined for food service and retail sectors in Europe and Asia.
- Cheaper Chinese and Chilean kernels continue to put downward pressure on wholesale prices, especially for non-organic, smaller grades.
- Calls for infrastructure development and branding in Kashmir grow louder as farmers seek a revival strategy for premium/organic exports.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers:
- Consider long-term contracts for premium Kashmir or Californian organic grades before potential infrastructure investment lifts prices.
- Monitor Chinese and Chilean supplies for near-term opportunities due to steady, competitive pricing.
- Growers/Exporters:
- Explore strategic partnerships to overcome logistical gaps, especially for Kashmir-based producers.
- Invest in post-harvest processing and branding to target premium/organic segments globally.
- Investors: Sector ripe for investment in processing, market linkage, and logistics; potential for strong returns if Indian premium segment can access global markets.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Origin/Region | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Outlook | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| China (FOB Dalian) | 2.35–3.4 | Flat to Soft | Steady; potential slight softening as harvest pressure continues |
| Kashmir, India (FOB New Delhi) | 5.5 | Stable | No sharp moves; sentiment firm for premium/organic but vulnerable to lack of local infrastructure |
| California, USA (FOB London) | 4.65 | Stable | Sentiment steady; strong demand for high-quality organic kernels |
