The global goji berry market is navigating an exceptionally turbulent period marked by heightened price volatility, supply chain strains, and mounting regulatory scrutiny. This season, a cooler-than-expected climate in primary producing regions has forced the harvest to be delayed by nearly two weeks. Traders now face near-exhausted inventories, and many suppliers are struggling to fulfill long-term contracts. The result: a sharp surge in prices and a market rife with uncertainty, as volatility threatens to persist until supplies stabilize. Meanwhile, persistent food safety concerns — underscored by heavy metal and chemical contamination scandals in Asia — have provoked calls for stricter regulatory oversight.
Despite these headwinds, long-term prospects remain strong. Scientific research continues to highlight goji berries’ substantial health benefits, including positive impacts on metabolism and vision. This, combined with a growing global appetite for superfoods, is expected to underpin robust demand growth and industry optimism through 2031. Yet, this season’s combination of weather disruptions and safety fears is likely to keep the market on edge for months to come.
📈 Prices
| Name | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goji berries dried | 380 count | CN | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 6.92 | 0.0% | Bullish, strong upward pressure |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Delayed Harvest: Cooler weather delayed harvests in China, squeezing supply and risking crop losses if frost hits early.
- Exhausted Inventories: Previous season stocks are nearly gone, limiting supplier flexibility and spiking prices.
- High Demand Outlook: Superfood status and recent positive research buoy long-term demand projections, with the market forecast to reach USD 2.12 billion by 2031.
- Regional Bottlenecks: Exporters in the Netherlands and other key hubs are reporting difficulty securing steady flows, further tightening supply chains.
📊 Fundamentals
- Food Safety: All 30 goji berry samples in a recent Taiwan test showed heavy metal contamination, including organic-labeled products.
- Quality Control Issues: Expanded Chinese investigations into illegal use of sodium metabisulfite and sulfur threaten both domestic and export market confidence.
- Scientific Backing: Studies confirm benefits for metabolism and vision, supporting consumer acceptance despite current headlines.
- Speculative Activity: Volatility and tightening inventories have attracted speculative buying, driving prices upward.
☁️ Weather Outlook: China and Key Growing Regions
- Short-Term: Weather remains cooler than seasonal averages, with a risk of early frost before harvest concludes. Rains are below normal, raising some drought concerns for late-ripening berries.
- Effects: If unfavourable weather persists, yields may decline, supply tightness could worsen, and price spikes could intensify before end-of-season stabilization.
📦 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Production (2024/25, est.) | Stock Status | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | ca. 175,000 t | Very Low | Main source; facing weather & regulatory disruption |
| Other Asia | ca. 12,000 t | Low | Minor contributor; mostly for local markets |
| Europe (imports) | — | Almost exhausted | Dependent on China; supply bottleneck in NL/DE |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- ✔️ Buyers: Secure forward contracts promptly to mitigate further price increases or supply lulls.
- ✔️ Traders: Monitor regulatory signals in China and Taiwan closely; quality concerns could affect short-term demand.
- ✔️ Producers: Focus on meeting safety standards and transparent communication to retain export credibility.
- ⚠️ Market Risks: Persistent weather events or further contamination scandals could spark additional volatility.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht, NL (FCA, CN origin) | 6.92 | 7.02 | 7.09 | 7.12 | ↑ Upward |
Key Insight: Tight supply, exhausted stocks, and persistent safety fears underpin a sharply bullish outlook for goji berries in the coming weeks. Secure contracts early while monitoring quality signals and regulatory changes closely.