Chilli Market Faces Softer Prices Amid Saurashtra Crop Surge and Steady Demand

The chilli market, particularly in India’s Saurashtra region, is at a pivotal stage as favorable recent weather has helped green chilli crops rebound, boosting both crop health and production outlooks. Farmers in Saurashtra have reported significant gains from intermittent rainfall, which improved soil moisture just ahead of critical growth stages. These improved growing conditions have quickly translated into increased market arrivals, especially in key trading hubs like Rajkot and Gondal, where daily supply has surged by 1,000–1,200 quintals over the past week. As a result, prices for premium-quality green chilies have edged down from previous highs, now settling at $36–$38 per quintal, down from $38.40–$40.80.

Despite the increase in supply, strong demand from neighboring states like Rajasthan, as well as persistent export interest in premium quality green chilies, has kept prices largely stable and prevented a steeper market downturn. Market sources and agricultural experts believe that if current weather trends persist, yields will continue to improve, further stabilizing prices across the Saurashtra region. The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with an eye on weather patterns, potential export upticks, and the next round of arrivals. For now, producers and traders are navigating a market experiencing the effects of a crop rebound, with improved prospects but heightened competition and shifting price floors.

📈 Prices

Product	Specification	Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Chilli dried whole	Bird Eye, Grade A, Organic	New Delhi	4.68	Stable	Neutral
Chilli dried powder	Grade A, Organic	Andhra Pradesh	4.42	Stable	Neutral
Chilli dried flakes	Grade A, Organic	Andhra Pradesh	4.39	Stable	Neutral
Chilli dried (with stem)	Conventional	Andhra Pradesh	2.18	Stable	Neutral
Chilli dried whole	Stemless, Grade A	Andhra Pradesh	2.21	Stable	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Improved in Saurashtra, with daily market arrivals up by 1,000–1,200 quintals/week. Crop health boosted by recent rainfall and better soil moisture.
• Demand: Remains robust from states like Rajasthan. Export demand for high-quality green chilies provides a firm floor for prices.
• Price Movement: Green chilli prices in Rajkot & Gondal softened to $36–$38/quintal after earlier highs of $38.40–$40.80.

📊 Fundamentals

• Weather: Recent weather has been beneficial, with timely rainfall improving moisture during key crop stages. This augurs well for further yield improvement and stable supply as long as these conditions persist.
• Yield Outlook: If favorable weather continues, yields expected to rise, leading to stable or marginally lower prices.
• Market Drivers: Key drivers include increased arrivals, interstate and export demand, and ongoing favorable weather patterns.

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Saurashtra (Rajkot, Gondal): Currently experiencing moderate weather with daytime temperatures in the low-30°Cs, scattered showers forecast over the next three days, and above-average soil moisture levels—a positive sign for continued harvest gains and sustained quality.
• Andhra Pradesh: Similar mild conditions and rain forecasts are expected, supporting post-harvest drying and maintaining export-ready quality for processed chilli products.

🌎 Global Market Comparison

• India remains the world’s largest producer and exporter of chillies, with increased exports to the Middle East and Europe in 2024. Saurashtra’s rebound is offsetting some lower output patches in other states but is watched closely by global buyers.
• Major importers: USA, China, Middle East; Main competitors: China, Mexico—current Indian prices are competitive, supportive for further export flows in coming months.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Traders should monitor crop arrivals and weather updates—expect steady price levels if favorable growing conditions persist.
• Exporters encouraged to lock in deals on premium-quality produce while prices remain stable and supply ample.
• Producers in Saurashtra should accelerate post-harvest movement to capitalize on robust demand and hedge against further softening if arrivals surge.
• Downside risk: Potential for further minor declines if yields outpace demand but cushioned by solid interstate and international interest.
• Watch for: Weather volatility, late pest outbreaks, and changes in export logistics or tariffs.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Product	Forecast Price (EUR/kg)	Trend
Saurashtra (Rajkot/Gondal)	Green chilli (fresh)	0.33–0.35	Stable to Slightly Weaker
New Delhi	Chilli dried whole (Bird Eye, Organic)	4.68	Stable
Andhra Pradesh	Chilli dried, various	2.18–4.42	Stable