Steady as She Goes: Global Millet Market Holds Firm Amid Balanced Supply and Demand

The global millet market, featuring Bajra (pearl millet) and other key varieties, has demonstrated remarkable stability in recent days, reflecting a strong balance between supply and demand. With moderate arrivals in major Indian mandis and consistent buying interest, price volatility remains limited. This current environment allows both producers and buyers a measure of confidence, as the market shows no major upside or downside triggers. Premium-quality Bajra continues to command a modest premium over the average crop, indicating ongoing interest in top-grade supplies.

Meanwhile, international markets present similar trends; in the Black Sea region, China, and Poland, millet seed and kernel prices have largely held steady, with only minor adjustments seen across key contracts. Market participants, including traders, exporters, and processors, are closely monitoring weather developments in critical growing areas and anticipating upcoming supply updates to guide their forward planning. In summary, the millet market presents a picture of resilience and calm, with near-term stability likely to persist barring significant shifts in weather or global trade dynamics.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Purity/Type	Organic	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow	No	FOB	0.18	0.18	2025-09-19
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow 99.90%	Yes	FOB	0.80	0.82	2025-09-17
Millet kernels	CN	Beijing	hulled, yellow 99.95%	No	FOB	0.73	0.74	2025-09-17
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	inshell, red 98%	No	FCA	0.27	0.25	2025-09-12
Millet seeds	UA	Odesa	inshell, yellow 98%	No	FCA	0.27	0.25	2025-09-12
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow 99%	Yes	FCA	1.20	1.20	2025-09-12
Millet kernels	UA	Odesa	hulled, yellow 98%	No	FCA	0.40	0.40	2025-09-12
Millet seeds	PL	Kiełczygłow	hulled, yellow 99.95%	No	FCA	0.45	0.44	2025-09-01

Domestic Bajra (India) Price Summary

• Average-quality: $42.10–$43.25/quintal (no significant change week-on-week)
• Premium quality: $44.10/quintal (steady)
• Himatnagar: $41.70–$43.00/quintal
• Bidaj region: $42.80–$44.30/quintal

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals in key Indian mandis (markets) remain moderate, preventing either shortage or surplus price pressure.
• Internationally, available supplies in Ukraine, China, and Poland match steady demand, with no major backlog or logistics challenges reported.
• Buying activity is described as balanced, supporting current rangebound price action.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global millet production in 2024 expected to be near recent historical averages, pending final crop surveys.
• USDA and local ministry reports do not indicate any unusual export restrictions or inventory spikes.
• This market phase is characterized by the absence of speculative momentum and the prevalence of physical, need-based trading.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Watch

• India: Lights rains reported in Gujarat and Rajasthan, supporting soil moisture levels, positive for late-planted Bajra.
• Ukraine: Dry and cool conditions, but sufficient soil reserves for current crop needs; no acute concern over yields at present.
• China: No adverse weather observed in principal millet-growing provinces.

🌐 Country Comparison: Production & Stocks

Country	2024E Production (Mt)	Major Export Markets
India	11.0	Gulf, Africa, EU
Nigeria	6.0	WAf, Domestic
China	1.6	Domestic, Asia
Ukraine	0.3	EU, MENA
EU (Poland etc.)	0.2	Intra-EU

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Continue rangebound strategies; physical buyers can purchase as needed, with low risk of an immediate price rally.
• Exporters: Monitor weather in India and Ukraine for any upcoming disruptions, though risks presently appear minimal.
• Speculators: Market momentum is lacking; focus on short-duration trades if necessary.
• If storage is possible, consider holding small quantities, as steady demand and stable prices allow flexibility in forward sales.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Expected Price Trend	Price Range (local currency/EUR)
India (mandis)	Stable	$42.00–$44.00/quintal
Ukraine (Odesa, FOB)	Stable to slightly up	€0.18–€0.19/kg
China (FOB, Beijing)	Stable	€0.73–€0.80/kg
Poland (FCA, Kiełczygłow)	Stable	€0.45–€0.46/kg