Soybean Market Slips on Oversupply and Weak Demand: Outlook Remains Constrained

Soybean prices have retreated in key markets, reflecting a climate of heightened uncertainty and subdued demand. The latest reports from India, particularly in Indore, show that soybean prices declined by USD 0.60 to USD 53.50 per 100 kg. This slide comes on the back of robust daily arrivals—about 400,000 bags in major production states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra—far outstripping tepid domestic and export buying. Despite the onset of festive demand that usually perks up edible oil purchases, there has been little support from processors, in part due to comfortable carryover stocks.

With both domestic offtake and export inquiries reportedly sluggish, the market consensus is that any quick rebound remains unlikely unless there is a notable pick-up in shipments or oil demand. The outlook for the coming sessions suggests a narrow price range, as buyers are expected to remain on the sidelines. Moreover, with steady supply continuing and weather in major global producers looking broadly favorable, upside risks seem contained in the short term. Comparisons with previous market reports underline a persistent theme: oversupply and weak demand dominating the sentiment. Market participants should stay tuned to export order trends and any detrimental weather developments, as these will be the critical swing factors moving forward.

📈 Prices: Latest Soybean Market Quotes

Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Change	Date	Market Sentiment
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.39	0.39	0.00	2025-10-03	Bearish
IN	sortex clean	New Delhi	0.76	0.76	0.00	2025-10-03	Bearish
UA	–	Odesa	0.34	0.34	0.00	2025-10-03	Bearish
CN	yellow, organic	Beijing	0.78	0.77	+0.01	2025-10-02	Stable/Bullish (Organic)
CN	yellow	Beijing	0.68	0.67	+0.01	2025-10-02	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand: Market Drivers

• Arrivals: Heavy arrivals in India (approx. 400,000 bags/day in major states) supply pressure.
• Demand: Both domestic processors and exporters display caution due to adequate inventory levels.
• Edible Oil Sector: Festive season has not yet sparked a surge in oilseed buying.
• Global Trade: Weak export orders continue to cap any real upside in prices.
• Speculative Activity: Positioning appears light, as market participants wait for clearer demand cues.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks, and Global Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production Estimate (mln tons)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mln tons)	Notes
US	113.5	8.7	Crop conditions stable, harvest progressing well.
Brazil	155.0	30.2	Weather mostly favorable, but watch for late dryness.
Argentina	48.0	6.0	Some regional dryness; overall outlook stable.
India	12.0	1.6	Arrivals up, market oversupplied.
China (import)	–	25.0	Continues to dominate global buying.

🌦️ Weather Watch: Key Growing Regions

• US Midwest: Near-average rainfall and seasonal temperatures, supporting harvest.
• Brazil: Consistent rains in central/northern states; closely monitor potential late-season dryness in the South.
• Argentina: Some moisture deficits, especially in eastern areas, but nothing critical as of now.
• India: Monsoon withdrawal complete; dry weather aids harvest but aggravates oversupply in the short term.

Analysis: Current weather patterns largely favor supply, with little immediate threat to yields in major producing countries. Watch for potential issues in Southern Brazil and Eastern Argentina in coming weeks.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Spot prices may remain subdued due to high arrivals and lackluster demand.
• Monitor export orders—any increase could provide upside interest.
• Buyers can take advantage of stable pricing, especially for forward coverage.
• Producers should avoid aggressive selling at current lows unless cash needs dictate.
• Speculators: Consider range-bound strategies; major breakout unlikely absent supply shocks or export surges.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Spot Price (EUR/kg)	Outlook (Next 3 Days)
CBOT (US No. 2)	0.39	Flat to slightly lower
New Delhi (India, sortex clean)	0.76	Weak, rangebound
Odesa (Ukraine)	0.34	Stable

Summary: The soybean market remains under selling pressure as heavy arrivals coincide with lackluster demand both in India and globally. Current pricing trends are expected to persist unless disrupted by a new wave of export activity or a weather-driven supply shock elsewhere. Market participants are best advised to adopt a defensive, risk-aware strategy in the near term.