This week, the Ajwain (carom seed) market in Jamnagar exhibited remarkable stability, with prices holding within a tight range despite various undercurrents affecting supply and quality. The wholesale trade saw medium-quality ajwain quoted between US$2.45 and US$2.60 per kg, super-quality at US$2.70–2.85 per kg, and best-quality lots commanding up to US$2.90 per kg. Traders attribute this stability to a combination of steady market arrivals, manageable inventory levels among retailers and bulk buyers, and only moderate export activity—mainly directed toward the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
Recent light rainfall in Gujarat has introduced a modest uptick in moisture content in freshly harvested lots. While this is advantageous for late-sown crops, concerns have emerged regarding potential quality deterioration in some stored stocks due to excessive moisture. The overall supply chain, however, remains uninterrupted, with arrivals averaging 100–150 bags daily at local mandis. Though the monsoon has the potential to enhance the upcoming sowing season, it could lead to a short-term delay in the entry of new stock into the market. Price expectations remain steady, buttressed by limited premium quality supply and undiminished domestic demand. For those monitoring supply-demand nuances, ajwain’s market dynamics this season are a testament to the crop’s resilience and the trade’s adaptability.
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Ajwain
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FOB 3.80 €/kg
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Grade | Location | Price (USD/kg) | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium Quality | Jamnagar | 2.45–2.60 | 2.29–2.43 | Stable | Neutral |
| Super Quality | Jamnagar | 2.70–2.85 | 2.53–2.67 | Stable | Slightly Bullish |
| Best Quality | Jamnagar | Up to 2.90 | Up to 2.72 | Stable | Bullish for Premium Grades |
| Grade A Seed (Organic, 99%) | New Delhi (FOB) | 3.66* | 3.48 | No Change | Neutral |
| Powder, Grade B (Organic, 99%) | New Delhi (FOB) | 4.00* | 3.80 | No Change | Neutral |
*USD prices estimated from current EUR value (EUR/USD 1.05)
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Arrivals: Steady, averaging 100–150 bags/day in Jamnagar; uninterrupted despite weather changes.
- Demand: Stable domestic offtake; moderate export interest, mainly Middle East and Southeast Asia.
- Inventories: Retailers and bulk buyers hold ample stocks, reducing pressure on spot market demand.
- Market Dynamics: Range-bound prices supported by a balanced supply-demand equation and limited top-grade supply.
📊 Fundamental Data & Key Insights
- Recent light rains increased moisture in new arrivals; enhances late-sown crop prospects but poses quality risk for stored lots.
- Overall supply chain remains robust; monsoon could slightly defer new arrivals, yet supports next season’s sowing.
- No major shifts in speculative positioning; the market remains largely trade-driven.
🌦️ Regional Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Gujarat: Scattered showers in the past week have led to mild moisture issues but should benefit upcoming sowings if rains remain moderate.
- Forecast: Next 3 days suggest partly cloudy conditions, with minor rainfall (1-3 mm) in key growing belts. No storms anticipated; overall positive for crop development.
🌐 Production & Stock Overview
| Country | 2023/24 Production (Est.) | Stock Position | Export Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 65,000 MT | Adequate; stable | 75% |
| Paksitan | 4,500 MT | Limited | 8% |
| Other (Egypt, Iran) | 2,000 MT | Marginal | 17% |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Spot buying of premium lots is advisable as limited top-grade stocks and quality concerns may underpin prices.
- Bulk purchasers should secure inventory but avoid aggressive forward buying amid stable local demand and steady arrivals.
- Exporters to the Middle East and Southeast Asia can continue targeting small lots; monitor currency risk amid stable global prices.
- Watch monsoon patterns closely; significant rain or persistent moisture could prompt short-term quality issues or logistical delays.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location/Grade | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamnagar (Medium Quality) | 2.45–2.60 | 2.45–2.60 | Stable |
| Jamnagar (Super Quality) | 2.70–2.85 | 2.70–2.85 | Slightly Bullish |
| New Delhi (FOB, Seed Grade A) | 3.48 EUR | 3.48 EUR | Stable |
| New Delhi (FOB, Powder Grade B) | 3.80 EUR | 3.80 EUR | Stable |