Raisin Market Outlook: Global Output Drops, Prices Hold, Turkey Dominates Exports

After twelve consecutive weeks of declining raisin exports, the global raisin market is facing unprecedented challenges driven by weather impacts, tightening supply, and shifting trade dynamics. The latest export figures—2,400 tons shipped in the week ending November 29th—are down by 600 tons year-on-year, putting both farmers and exporters under mounting pressure. This slowdown is not isolated: the downward trend has been observed across key producing regions, prompting industry leaders at the Seedless Raisin Producing Countries Conference in South Africa (Nov 18–21, 2025) to highlight the climate crisis as a crucial factor in Northern Hemisphere declines. In contrast, the Southern Hemisphere is capitalizing on better weather, boosting output and slightly mitigating the global downturn.

Turkey remains the anchor of the global raisin trade, fending off competitors even as its 2025 production drops to 165,000 tons. With a targeted 145,000 tons in exports, Turkey is on track to secure a compelling 30% share of global raisin exports. Meanwhile, the global output shrank 7% to 1,079,000 tons, and world trade is projected to reach just 486,802 tons in 2025. Exporters and marketers are balancing inventory and price strategies amid these supply shocks. As the market faces production volatility, buyers and sellers are re-assessing short-term and long-term positions to navigate this shifting landscape.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Country/City	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous (EUR/kg)	Date	Sentiment
Sultanas, type 9, RTU STD	CN	DE/Hamburg	FCA	2.09	2.09	2025-12-01	Stable
Golden, grade AA	IN	IN/New Delhi	FOB	2.02	2.00	2025-11-29	Firming
Brown, grade AA	IN	IN/New Delhi	FOB	1.56	1.54	2025-11-29	Rising
Black, grade AA	IN	IN/New Delhi	FOB	1.52	1.50	2025-11-29	Rising
Sultanas, std no: 9, grade AA	CN	NL/Dordrecht	FCA	2.15	2.13	2025-11-29	Rising
Nr. 9, RTU	TR	NL/Dordrecht	FCA	2.85	2.83	2025-11-29	Rising
Sultanas, type 9, grade RTU	TR	TR/Malatya	CIF	2.40	2.40	2025-11-25	Stable
Sultanas, type 9, grade A	TR	TR/Malatya	FOB	3.20	3.20	2025-11-25	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global production down 7% in 2025: from 1,157,000 tons to 1,079,000 tons.
• Northern Hemisphere production dropped 23% (from 908,186 tons to 701,410 tons), due to climate problems.
• Southern Hemisphere production up 22% (from 178,425 tons to 217,850 tons).
• Turkish production for 2025 seen at 165,000 tons, with exports targeted at 145,000 tons (30% global share).
• Global raisin exports projected at 486,802 tons for 2025.
• Weekly Turkish exports (Nov 29): 2,400 tons, down 600 tons versus last year—lowest in recent months.

📊 Fundamentals

• Prolonged export volume decline has pressured farmgate prices and exporter margins for 3 months.
• Exporters and producers are concerned about global market shrinkage and increased competition from the Southern Hemisphere.
• Speculative positioning remains cautious; sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish based on tightening supply, despite weak demand.
• Turkey, US, Iran, and South Africa remain key global exporters; China and India are also major players in regional markets.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Turkey: Persistent dryness and above-average temperatures reduced yields, especially in Manisa and Aegean regions.
• California: Recent rains have helped replenish moisture following earlier drought, but flooding risk lingers.
• South Africa/Chile: Adequate to above-average rainfall—forecast remains mostly favorable for berry development and harvest quality in coming months.

Weather impact: The Northern Hemisphere recovery is uncertain if dry trends persist. Southern Hemisphere output may continue to grow if favorable weather holds.

📉 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2024 (tons)	2025 (tons)	YoY Change (%)
World Total	1,157,000	1,079,000	-7
Northern Hemisphere	908,186	701,410	-23
Southern Hemisphere	178,425	217,850	+22
Turkey (est. prod.)	179,000	165,000	-7.8
Turkey (exports target)	150,000	145,000	-3.3

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Sellers: Tight supply supports price stability—hold but monitor Southern Hemisphere competition and currency moves.
• Buyers: Secure supply, especially from Turkey and Southern Hemisphere, before stocks tighten further in Q1 2026.
• Watch Indian and Chinese offers, which remain competitive but reflect regional supply and quality variations.
• Monitor weather patterns for early signs of further disruptions in Turkey and California.
• Speculators: Favor long positions with tight stop-loss due to upside price risks but watch for potential relief on any demand weakness or higher Southern output.

⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Type	Location	Price Range EUR/kg	Direction
Sultanas Type 9, STD	DE/Hamburg	2.08 – 2.12	Stable
Golden, grade AA	IN/New Delhi	2.00 – 2.05	Firm/Up
Brown, grade AA	IN/New Delhi	1.55 – 1.58	Up

For detailed offers and market charts, see below.