Corn Market Outlook: Black Sea Tensions, Climatic Challenges & Firm Prices

The corn market is currently shaped by a complex interplay of geopolitical risk, dynamic weather impacts, and shifting trade flows. Recent days have brought heightened volatility, with Euronext corn futures supported by rising wheat prices and growing concerns that heightened conflict around the Black Sea could disrupt maize exports from both Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile, spot market prices for corn in the US have remained strong, underpinned by robust cash market demand for immediate delivery contracts. Logistics are increasingly challenging in the US Corn Belt following the completion of the harvest: plunging temperatures and significant snowfall have slowed the movement of corn to processing plants, adding short-term supply tightness.

In Europe, fresh data from the European Commission highlight a pronounced drop in corn imports, with cumulative arrivals in the 2025/26 season (to November 30) at just 6.74 million tons, down sharply from 8.67 million tons year-over-year. This shift is occurring even as barley exports from the EU accelerate – reflecting both changing internal balances and global competitive dynamics. Additionally, markets await the latest EIA report on US ethanol production; expectations are for little change, despite holiday-shortened schedules, particularly given near-record output the previous week.

All these factors collectively point to a tightening short-term fundamental picture for corn, reinforced by weather uncertainties in key growing regions. Market participants must monitor both regional logistics and geopolitical tensions closely as they weigh near-term trading opportunities.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Location	Product	Closing Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (Paris)	Corn (yellow)	200	+2.5%	Firm
CBOT (Chicago)	Corn (Dec ’25)	168	+1.8%	Supported
Physical Market (Odesa, UA, FCA)	Corn (yellow feed grade)	230	0%	Stable
Physical Market (Paris, FR, FOB)	Corn (yellow)	200	0%	Stable
Physical Market (New Delhi, IN, FOB)	Corn (starch, organic)	1650	-5.7%	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU Corn Imports: Down to 6.74 million tons (to Nov 30, 2025/26), from 8.67 million tons previous year.
• EU Barley Exports: Up at 4.44 million tons versus 2.03 million tons YoY.
• US Corn Logistics: Delays due to snow and low temperatures in the Corn Belt post-harvest.
• Ukraine & Russia: Export uncertainty due to Black Sea tensions could disrupt global supply.
• Ethanol Output: Near-record US ethanol production; EIA report awaited.

📊 Fundamentals

• CBOT and Euronext both show supported/firmer pricing environments, partly on wheat market spillover.
• Physical prices in leading origins (UA, FR) show remarkable stability, though Indian starch corn weakens.
• Speculative sentiment has turned less bearish amid supply risk factors and strong cash demand in the US.
• The tightening EU import pace and logistical constraints could support a firmer regional premium.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Corn Belt: Temperatures well below normal, recent strong snowfalls impacting transportation but not yields, as harvest is done.
• Ukraine & Russia: Mild early-winter conditions, but military/security risks threaten export reliability over weather factors.
• South America: Argentina has received favorable rains, supporting new-crop outlook; Brazil corn planting continues steadily, with moderate to above-average soil moisture.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2025/26 Output (Mt)	2025/26 Exports (Mt)	2025/26 Stocks (Mt)
USA	388	55	55
Brazil	133	50	17
Argentina	56	41	6
Ukraine	28	22	2
EU	61	5	11

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Stay alert for possible supply interruptions out of the Black Sea; bullish for prices if realized.
• Monitor US logistics post-harvest as short-term delays could support basis levels.
• Expect firm tone in Euronext and CBOT as long as cash market and wheat spillover persist.
• Opportunities for exporters in Argentina and Brazil as EU cutbacks in imports may shift demand.
• Short-term buyers: secure physical supply on dips; sellers: opportunistically lock in as premiums develop.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Price Trend	3-Day Change (%)	Forecast Sentiment
Euronext (Paris)	Sideways/Firm	+1.0 ~ +1.5%	Bullish bias
CBOT	Firm	+0.8 ~ +1.2%	Supportive
Odesa Physical	Stable	±0.2%	Neutral