Pea Market Update: Stable Prices in Ukraine Amid Global Competition & Weather Concerns

The global peas market is experiencing a stabilizing phase at the end of 2025, with particular attention on Ukraine, where green pea prices are holding steady despite strong competition from Canada. As of early December, Ukrainian port delivery prices for green peas hovered around $370-380/t (approximately 17,000-18,000 UAH/t), reflecting parity with the previous season’s price levels. Market sentiment in Ukraine remains cautious, as exporters face subdued international demand—a direct consequence of Ukraine’s relatively smaller export potential and less competitive pricing compared to Canadian shipments. Nevertheless, stable domestic prices and consistent buyer interest ensure a reliable market foundation, though the lack of robust demand caps any potential upward price movement. Elsewhere, European pea prices show similar steadiness, with minor fluctuations indicative of sufficient supply and normal trading volumes. Favorable winter sowing and generally neutral weather forecasts suggest minimal risk to upcoming harvests, though regional anomalies are worth monitoring. As we move toward the new year, attention will focus on shipment volumes, exchange rate effects, and the evolving competitive landscape in both pulse production and international trade.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Yellow	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.29	0.29	2025-12-04	Neutral/Stable
Ukraine	Green	98%	Odesa	FCA	0.40	0.41	2025-12-04	Stable/Modestly Weaker
UK	Marrowfat		London	FOB	1.31	1.31	2025-11-29	Stable
UK	Green		London	FOB	1.00	1.00	2025-11-29	Stable
Poland	Yellow	98%	Kiełczygłow	FCA	0.35	0.36	2025-11-19	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: Prices stable YoY. Export competitiveness limited due to smaller volumes and higher costs compared to Canada. Exporters face weak demand.
• Canada: Remains the global leader in peas export, influencing global prices with high volumes and competitive offers.
• EU/UK: Sufficient supplies reported; steady demand from food and feed sectors keeps prices rangebound.
• Importers: India and China set the pace for global trade, but absent any fresh import demand spikes, global markets remain balanced.

📊 Fundamentals

• Weather: Winter sowing in Ukraine and Europe has progressed under largely favorable but cooler-than-average conditions, with no significant risk events expected in the near term.
• USDA/Crop Reports: No major revisions in global or regional forecasts; inventories align with five-year averages.
• Speculative Positioning: Limited speculative activity in pulses, with traders opting for a wait-and-see approach.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Cooler than normal, but precipitation levels are supportive of overwintering crops. Risks of frost are low for December.
• Western Europe: Mild and slightly wetter, ideal for pulse crops. No significant threats anticipated for the winter period.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est, million t)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (est, million t)	YoY % Change
Canada	3.3	0.8	+2%
Ukraine	0.4	0.05	0%
Russia	2.1	0.3	+1%
EU	0.7	0.10	0%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 For Sellers: Look to secure contracts at current levels. Only limited upside expected in Q1 unless weather anomalies arise.
• 📌 For Exporters: Focus on logistics optimization and port delivery; price competition from Canada to persist.
• 📌 For Buyers: Cover short-term needs; monitor for price dips if export demand weakens further.
• 📌 Watch: Indian and Chinese import decisions for sudden demand spikes; Canadian shipment pace.

🗓️ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/Origins)

Origin/Exchange	Type	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Direction
Odesa (UA)	Green	0.39 – 0.41	Stable/Weak
Odesa (UA)	Yellow	0.28 – 0.30	Stable
London (GB)	Marrowfat	1.30 – 1.32	Stable