Millet Market Heats Up: Ukraine Supply Drops, Prices Spike, Global Dynamics Unfold

Global millet markets are entering a period of volatility and increased uncertainty. Recent data reveals a significant contraction in millet exports from Ukraine—one of Europe’s most important suppliers—with November volumes plummeting to just 4,530 tons, the lowest in two years. This decline is primarily attributed to reduced supply from Ukrainian producers, and the associated tightness has sparked a notable rally in domestic and export prices. In Ukraine, local red millet prices have nearly doubled over the year, fluctuating between 15,000 and 17,000 UAH, signifying a potential new price floor amidst ongoing economic instability. The spot market in Odesa remains tense, with processors and exporters vying for limited volumes, while international buyers are actively seeking alternatives across Central Asia, China, and Europe. Meanwhile, Polish and Chinese offers for millet kernels reflect both supply strain and varying product qualities, further contributing to an increasingly layered global price structure. Short-term prospects are clouded by weather risk in key growing regions, uncertain sowing intentions, and geopolitical headwinds in the Black Sea corridor. As the global trading community navigates shifting fundamentals, risk management and timing are set to play a pivotal role in capturing value in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Millet seeds (red)	UA	Odesa	inshell	98%	No	FCA	0.36	0.36	0%	Bullish
Millet seeds (yellow)	UA	Odesa	inshell	98%	No	FCA	0.34	0.34	0%	Firm
Millet kernels (yellow)	UA	Odesa	hulled	98%	No	FCA	0.44	0.43	+2.3%	Rising
Millet kernels (yellow)	UA	Odesa	hulled	99%	Yes	FCA	1.20	1.20	0%	Stable High
Millet kernels (yellow)	CN	Beijing	hulled	99.90%	Yes	FOB	0.84	0.86	-2.3%	Softening
Millet kernels (yellow)	CN	Beijing	hulled	99.95%	No	FOB	0.74	0.76	-2.6%	Softening
Millet seeds (yellow)	PL	Kiełczygłow	raw	98%	No	FCA	0.46	0.36	+27.8%	Rallying
Millet kernels (yellow)	PL	Kiełczygłow	hulled	99.95%	No	FCA	0.75	0.61	+22.9%	Rallying

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine Exports: Down drastically in November, with only 4,530 tons shipped—the lowest in 24 months, due to harvest and logistics constraints.
• Ukrainian Supply: Local supply remains tight; red millet prices have almost doubled year-on-year amid persistent economic and logistical challenges.
• Poland: Recently increased prices for both millet seeds (+27% w/w) and kernels (+23% w/w), indicating robust internal or export demand and short supply.
• China: Export prices for millet kernels are easing (-2% w/w) but remain well above pre-crisis levels, suggesting competitive but fluctuating supply-demand.
• Market Insight: European buyers are increasingly sourcing outside Ukraine to fill gaps, driving up prices in alternative origins and straining global stocks.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & Crop Reports: Latest international reports show stable to slightly declining global millet inventories, underpinned by lower Black Sea and Central Asian crops.
• Speculative Positioning: No large speculative flows observed, but global end-user hedging activity is up, reflecting concerns about medium-term availability.
• Inventories: Global carryout levels are at a four-year low, especially in Europe and the CIS. Stocks in China and India remain large, but exportable surpluses are limited by domestic program demand.

⛅️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Off-season, but above-average precipitation is delaying post-harvest fieldwork. Early outlook for spring sowing is neutral to slightly negative due to waterlogging and persistent cool temperatures. (Source: Meteoblue, Dec 2025)
• China: Major production areas are experiencing seasonally normal conditions with good moisture reserves—positive for winter cover and spring yield potential.
• India: Mostly dry, no major weather stress reported, but water availability remains a risk for rainfed areas going into planting season.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024E Production (kT)	2024E Stocks (kT)	Y/Y Change
India	11,000	1,400	Flat
Nigeria	5,600	950	+2%
China	2,100	280	-3%
Ukraine	130	23	-18%
Russia	90	15	-10%
EU-27	80	14	-14%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📈 Bullish for Ukrainian/Polish origins: Tight local supply and export constraints point to further price gains in winter 2024-25.
• 🌍 Explore alternative origins: Buyers should diversify sourcing from China and Central Asia, where prices are more competitive but quality can vary.
• ⏳ Short-term hold: Sellers advised to exercise patience as rising price trends are likely to persist, especially for red and hulled millet.
• 🔔 Monitor Black Sea region for signs of logistical improvement or further crop reductions, as these will heavily influence direction in Q1 2025.
• 🌦️ Watch weather: Any negative developments in Ukraine or Russia during spring could trigger another round of price rallies across the value chain.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product/Origin	Direction	Expected Range (EUR/kg)
Odesa, UA	Millet kernels, hulled, 98%	⬆️	0.43–0.46
Kiełczygłow, PL	Millet seeds, yellow	⬆️	0.45–0.48
Beijing, CN	Millet kernels, hulled	➡️	0.74–0.76