The barley market finds itself under renewed pressure this December, shaped by a contraction in Ukrainian supply and a persistently tense global grains environment. Ukraine, once a linchpin supplier to the international barley trade, has seen its export volumes tumble to 1.17 million tons for the current season—a sharp drop from 1.856 million tons at the same stage last year. This significant decline originates from a smaller total barley harvest, as ongoing weather and logistical challenges continue to dog producers and traders alike. Meanwhile, recent tenders have marked C&F prices between $268.42 and $285 per ton, underscoring the delicate balancing act between diminishing eastern European availabilities and wary demand from key importing countries.
Against the backdrop of these contractions, prices in Ukraine—especially for feed-grade barley—are showing signs of firming, with slight movements noted across regional offers. Barley seeds of Ukrainian origin (FCA Kyiv and Odesa) are now offered between €0.23 and €0.25 per kg, reflecting the competitive nature of current spot markets. Macroeconomic uncertainties, fluctuating currency rates, and the specter of unpredictable weather in the major Black Sea and European growing regions may further unsettle this equilibrium as the market heads deeper into the winter period. For professionals and engaged market-watchers, understanding these shifts is essential to managing both opportunity and risk in the months ahead.
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FOB 0.17 €/kg
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📈 Prices
| Location | Product Type | Term | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyiv, UA | Feed grade barley seeds, 14% max moisture | FCA | 0.23 | 0.24 | 2025-12-04 | Bearish |
| Odesa, UA | Feed grade barley seeds, 14% max moisture | FCA | 0.25 | 0.25 | 2025-12-04 | Stable |
| Odesa, UA | Barley seeds, Cattle feed | FOB | 0.18 | 0.18 | 2025-11-25 | Stable |
Recent Export Tenders (C&F): $268.42–$285/ton
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Ukrainian Exports: Down to 1.17 million tons (vs. 1.856 million a year ago), primarily due to decreased production.
- Global Market: The tightening Ukrainian supply boosts demand for barley from alternative origins (EU, Australia), with North Africa and Middle East buyers closely monitoring Black Sea developments.
- Feed Demand: Steady but watch for substitution with corn/wheat in high-cost environments.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Production: Ukrainian barley harvest reduced by adverse weather and lower planted acreage.
- Inventories: Ending stocks in major exporters moderately lower; EU stocks provide some buffer.
- Speculation: Managed money maintains a generally neutral to slightly long position as market eyes risk premiums.
- USDA Reports: Latest WASDE points to lower global barley stocks, with focus on output revisions in the Black Sea and Australia.
- Currency Volatility: UAH and EUR fluctuations in focus for export competitiveness.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- Ukraine: Early December has seen milder-than-normal temperatures with adequate moisture, supporting late sowing but increasing risks if cold snaps arrive in late winter/early spring.
- EU: Western Europe remains seasonably wet; concerns over field saturation and potential spring planting delays.
- Australia: Harvest nearly complete; yields generally in line with expectations, but dryness in Southeast Asia could spur feed demand.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (mln t) | 2024/25 Exports (mln t) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (mln t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 6.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| European Union | 51.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 |
| Australia | 12.3 | 7.8 | 1.1 |
| Russia | 20.4 | 5.5 | 2.6 |
| Turkey | 7.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Saudi Arabia (importer) | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3.3 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Watch for continued firmness in Ukrainian FOB and C&F offers as exportable supply remains tight.
- Hold positions if already committed, but approach new purchases with caution—global feed demand may weaken if corn prices fall sharply.
- Monitor Black Sea and EU weather for frost or spring flooding risks; price volatility may rise in Q1.
- Look for buying opportunities in Australia as Southern Hemisphere exports accelerate; may offer seasonal price relief in Q1–Q2.
- Seek price insurance or fix prices for late winter/early spring shipments if input cost volatility is a concern.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyiv (FCA, UA) | 0.23 | 0.22 – 0.24 | Soft/Stable |
| Odesa (FCA, UA) | 0.25 | 0.24 – 0.26 | Stable |
| Odesa (FOB, UA) | 0.18 | 0.18 – 0.19 | Stable |
