Muted Demand Keeps Bean Prices Rangebound: Insights & Outlook for China’s Market

The Chinese beans market enters December with muted demand and an overall cautious sentiment among both buyers and sellers. This week, red adzuki beans (红小豆) notably reflect the overall tone: downstream demand remains weak, with low purchasing activity across main consumption regions, as many market players focus on digesting existing inventories rather than placing large new orders. As a result of limited buyer enthusiasm, most producing-area traders are struggling with slow sales and, in some cases, are offering modest price concessions to move inventory. However, while farmers are showing slight price flexibility, there remains an underlying reluctance to sell at lower prices—helping to cap downside price movement for now.

Meanwhile, import and export trends are helping to rebalance the market: red bean imports have declined year-on-year, while exports have grown, further aiding the digestion of domestic supply. With raw material costs (毛粮成本) still a significant factor in price formation, market participants are closely watching inventory shifts as well as weather developments in key growing provinces like Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. Recent modest price changes across bean varieties—from steady to slightly easing—underscore the market’s current state of anticipation, as traders and producers await signals of demand improvement or further price movement triggered by external shocks or seasonal consumption spikes.

📈 Prices: Spot Market & Key Exchanges

Name	Type / Origin	Location	Organic	FOB Price (EUR/t)	Prev. Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Update Date	Sentiment
Mung beans	Organic (99.5%), CN	Beijing, CN	Yes	1.60	1.55	+3.2%	2025-12-04	Firming
Mung beans	3.8 mm up, CN	Beijing, CN	No	1.44	1.44	0.0%	2025-12-04	Stable
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic, CN	Beijing, CN	Yes	1.22	1.25	-2.4%	2025-12-04	Soft
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic, CN	Beijing, CN	Yes	3.00	3.08	-2.6%	2025-12-04	Weakening
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0 mm+, CN	Beijing, CN	Yes	1.33	1.32	+0.8%	2025-12-04	Stable
Adzuki beans	Red, 5.0 mm+, CN	Beijing, CN	No	1.25	1.24	+0.8%	2025-12-04	Stable
Kidney beans	Dark red, CN	Beijing, CN	No	1.30	1.36	-4.4%	2025-12-04	Weakening

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Weak domestic demand continues, with most buyers working through existing inventory. Negative end-user sentiment has kept procurement sluggish, especially in red adzuki. Farmers’ reluctance for low-offer sales is supporting prices from falling further.
• International trade: Imports of red beans (adzuki) dropped year-on-year during the first 10 months, while export volumes increased, favoring market balance and domestic consumption.
• Inventory: Many traders and wholesalers are still digesting earlier purchase volumes, limiting fresh demand.

📊 Fundamentals: Market Drivers

• Raw Material Costs: Despite weak demand, the hesitancy among farmers to sell at low prices creates a floor for raw beans, restricting larger price declines.
• Trade Flows: Declining imports and stronger exports are relieving some domestic gluts, supporting price stability.
• Speculative Activity: Limited as buyers take a wait-and-see approach amid lackluster consumption signals.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• North/Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia): Recent stable-to-cold temperatures are not currently affecting standing fresh bean crops, as most harvests are complete. No significant precipitation expected in the coming week, reducing risk of post-harvest storage losses.
• Central Plains: Farmers are mainly storing beans in anticipation of price improvement. Weather is neutral with no major threats to quality.

🌏 Global Production & Inventory Overview

• China: Remains the world’s largest producer of red beans, mung beans, and kidney beans. Domestic supply remains sufficient, though near-term oversupply is contained by exports and a reluctant seller base.
• Brazil: Steady export prices (dark red kidney beans at 1.39 EUR/t FOB), unchanged from last week. Brazil provides a floor for international competition.
• UK/EU: Stable prices with limited trade activity, reflecting the global slowdown in demand outside of core Asian markets.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• • Buyers: Take a gradual, need-based approach—no urgency to accumulate large volumes as prices show limited upward risk but could soften if demand doesn’t rebound.
• • Sellers/Farmers: Holding may yield limited benefits; consider partial sales if cash flow is a concern, as prices are unlikely to rebound strongly in the short term.
• • Exporters: Leverage robust export opportunities amid weaker Chinese domestic demand; look for buyers in Southeast Asia and Middle East.
• • Watch: Inventory draws and weather patterns that could shift farmer behavior or create logistical risks in the next month.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Selected Varieties, FOB, CN/BR)

Commodity	Origin	Current Price (EUR/t)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Mung beans (Organic)	CN	1.60	1.58–1.62	Sideways/Bullish
Kidney beans (Small black, org.)	CN	1.22	1.21–1.24	Soft/Stable
Kidney beans (Large white, org.)	CN	3.00	2.97–3.03	Weakening
Adzuki beans (Red, org.)	CN	1.33	1.32–1.34	Stable
Kidney beans (Dark red)	BR	1.39	1.38–1.40	Stable