Bean Market Analysis: Prices Under Pressure Amid Ample Supply & Tepid Demand

The global beans market is facing a period of heightened uncertainty, shaped by changing supply chains, sluggish demand, and market participants’ cautious sentiment. In key growing regions like China, specifically in Hebei and parts of Shanxi, farmers have exhibited varying selling attitudes—some rapidly offloading stocks while others hold out for better prices. The United Kingdom’s red kidney bean segment also displays adequate supply, yet reports indicate farmers are selling slowly in hopes of price recoveries. Most trade participants and processors are currently focused on digesting existing inventories, with little enthusiasm for aggressive restocking.

On the demand side, downstream activity remains tepid, as most buyers opt to rely on their inventory rather than commit to significant new purchases. Export demand is notably softer than last year, with both price levels and shipment volumes trending downward. This contraction in outbound trade is leading to slower stock turnover and further adding to the cautious mood in domestic markets. With weather now a significant factor for both hemispheres, short-term volatility is likely, but with inventory pipelines still comfortable, any aggressive price upswing appears constrained for now.

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📈 Latest Market Prices

Name	Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (EUR/t)	Prev. Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mung beans	organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.60	1.55	▲ +0.05	Firm
Mung beans	3.8 mm up, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.44	1.44	— 0.00	Stable
Kidney beans	small, black, organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.22	1.25	▼ -0.03	Weak
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	3.00	3.08	▼ -0.08	Bearish
Kidney beans	large white, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	2.87	2.95	▼ -0.08	Bearish
Kidney beans	dark red, organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	1.44	1.46	▼ -0.02	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Situation

• Supply: Sufficient in both China and UK, but with regional nuances: Hebei selling progressing quickly; Shanxi/Xinzhou still holding stocks but hesitant to sell below cost.
• Demand: Downstream buyers in the UK and China are running down inventories, purchasing mostly on an as-needed basis. Export demand is subdued compared to 2024, driven by lower global intake and price competition.
• Inventories: Traders and processors are sitting on comfortable stocks, echoing the wait-and-see attitude. Restocking is minimal, with price outlook on the cautious side.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Export prices remain below last year’s levels for most Chinese and UK-origin beans.
• World stocks of dry beans are broadly stable, but spot market liquidity is tightening as selling slows in some Chinese regions.
• Speculators are largely absent from the beans segment, awaiting clearer signals from the demand side and potentially from weather influences.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Impact

• China: North China’s weather has favored adequate harvest, supporting ample supply. Little stress in outlook, but localized rains could delay shipment from some producing areas.
• UK & Europe: Mild and wet spell recently, which is unwinding fieldwork but not expected to harm stored beans or immediate spring planting plans.
• Brazil: Some wet spots may delay new harvest, but major adverse crop impact is not expected at this stage.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country / Region	2024/25 Production Estimate (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)	Trend YoY
China	1.25	0.39	Stable
UK	0.15	0.04	Down
Brazil	1.35	0.37	Up
EU (Exc. UK)	0.75	0.12	Stable
Global	~7.5	1.15	Stable

📌 Market Drivers & Key Insights

• Ample stocks and slow selling cap further upside for now.
• Downstream buyers hesitant, keeping new contracts limited.
• Exports remain sluggish; no sign yet of sustained demand rebound.
• Localized selling pressure and farmer reluctance to sell at low prices may temporarily support basis levels, especially in Northern China.
• Weather benign but must be monitored as spring progresses in both hemispheres.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For exporters: Monitor destination market demand closely; prioritize flexible contracts and quality specifications.
• For processors & traders: Continue spot buying for immediate needs; avoid overstocking amid weak demand.
• For farmers: Evaluate local market trading floors; maintain readiness for rapid shipment if price momentum ticks upward, especially pre-new crop harvests.
• For buyers: Watch margins as prices hold near lows; consider forward contracts if export demand recovers or weather risks increase.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/t)	Price Direction	Forecast Range (3d)
Beijing (CN)	Mung beans, organic	1.60	➡️ Stable	1.57 – 1.63
Beijing (CN)	Kidney beans, small black, organic	1.22	➡️ Slightly Weak	1.19 – 1.24
London (UK)	Kidney beans, white	1.32	➡️ Stable	1.30 – 1.34
Brasília (BR)	Kidney beans, dark red	1.39	➡️ Stable	1.37 – 1.42

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