Beans Market Update: Small Price Slides Amid Cost Pressure and Tepid Demand

The beans market continues to exhibit a delicate balance between cost-driven price support and lackluster downstream demand. Recent exporter feedback highlights a familiar push-and-pull dynamic: while farmers in major production areas are reluctant to sell at low prices, keeping the raw bean (毛粮) costs buoyant, this is counteracted by generally subdued procurement activity in downstream markets. As a result, finished product prices remain strongly influenced by these high raw material costs. Despite this cost support, weaker terminal demand—particularly from the snack and processing sectors—has led to slight price slides across several bean varieties over the past week. Many market participants anticipate demand may pick up slightly as winter progresses, especially from the snack and ingredient manufacturing sectors, which could help stabilize prices going forward. For now, however, a stable to slightly softer market tone persists, with specific varieties—like Chinese organic kidney and black beans—showing modest price corrections while others hold steady due to tight supply.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Product	Origin	Type	Organic	Latest Price (EUR/t, FOB)	Weekly Change (EUR)	Market Sentiment
Mung beans	China	Organic, 99.5%	Yes	1.60	+0.05	Firm/cost-driven
Mung beans	China	3.8 mm up, 99.5%	No	1.44	0.00	Steady
Kidney beans	China	Small, black, organic	Yes	1.22	-0.03	Softening
Kidney beans	China	Large, white, organic	Yes	3.00	-0.08	Softening
Kidney beans	China	Large, white	No	2.87	-0.08	Softening
Adzuki beans	China	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	Yes	1.33	+0.01	Firm
Kidney beans	Brazil	Dark red	No	1.39	0.00	Steady
Kidney beans	UK	White, 99%	No	1.32	0.00	Steady
Fava beans	UK	Sortex, small	No	1.14	0.00	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Cost Support: Farmers maintain a wait-and-see stance, expecting higher prices; raw bean price floor remains firm.
• Inventory Pressure: Many traders are reluctant to liquidate stocks below acquisition cost.
• Demand Side: End-user buying is cautious; snack food segment may increase procurement as winter progresses.
• Exports: China continues to dominate global specialty bean exports, but new-crop offers from Brazil and the UK are creating increased competition, especially in the kidney bean segment.
• Speculative Positioning: Minimal speculative activity reported due to the fundamentally driven market.

📊 Fundamental & Global Data

Country	2023/24 Output (est., kt)	Ending Stocks (kt)	Export Share (%)
China	2,100	470	34
Brazil	920	155	14
UK	490	75	6
India	5,300	300	2

• China remains the largest exporter, but stocks are not burdensome; most beans held as working capital by farmers and traders.
• Brazil is gaining share in dark red and brown-eye kidney beans in Middle Eastern and European destinations.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• China (Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia): Near-normal to slightly drier outlook for the next 10 days; no immediate threat to late harvest or overwinter stocks stability.
• Brazil (Goias/Mato Grosso): Current conditions favor planting, but upcoming La Niña could pose a dry risk in Q1 2026.
• UK: Mild, unsettled weather promoting good late-field condition and stock quality.

Winter conditions typically boost dry bean demand; monitoring for cold snaps in North China which could restrict late logistics or create temporary price bumps.

🔍 Market Drivers vs. Last Report

• Prices last report: stable with mild cost side support; this week shows a minor downside in several Chinese bean variants due mainly to persistent weak demand.
• No significant change in export volumes, but price gaps between major exporters are narrowing.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Take advantage of recent softness to replenish, especially for black and white kidney beans with slight corrections.
• Merchants: Hold stock unless pressure mounts from inventory turnover concerns; cost support remains but watch for signs of inventory-driven discounting.
• Watch weather—any cold-driven logistics issues could spike domestic bean prices in North China on short notice.
• Next demand uptick expected from mid-winter onwards.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Product/Region	Exchange/Location	Price Trend	Forecast (EUR/t, FOB)
Mung beans (organic)	Beijing, CN	Stable/Firm	1.58 – 1.62
Kidney beans (black, organic)	Beijing, CN	Mildly weaker	1.20 – 1.23
Kidney beans (large white)	Beijing, CN	Softening	2.85 – 2.90
Kidney beans (dark red)	Brasília, BR	Stable	1.38 – 1.41