Corn Market: Small Price Surges, Stable Demand, and Weather Watch Ahead

In early December 2025, the corn market displays subtle but intriguing dynamics. While average purchase prices for cereals and oilseeds in Poland show slight upward movement, the increases are modest and have not fundamentally changed producers’ profitability calculations. Specifically, the price for wet corn remains stable in the 400-500 PLN/t range, aligning closely with previous levels, and dry corn hovers around 650-800 PLN/t, averaging 692.08 PLN/t—almost unchanged from the prior week’s average of 692.92 PLN/t. Markets elsewhere in Europe see similarly muted volatility, though the underlying fundamentals suggest that potential shifts could occur if weather or logistical disruptions arise. Globally, recent offers for corn exports from France and Ukraine remain steady, but with EU and Black Sea competition intensifying and international demand patterns closely linked to Asian and African feed demand.

What should market participants watch now? Tight exporter margins, soft global demand growth, and a vigilant eye on weather patterns—especially as the La Niña phase evolves and rainfall deficits threaten critical yield stages in the southern hemisphere. Strategic decisions in the coming weeks will hinge on not just farmgate price signals, but also on ongoing developments in supply chain flows, speculative positions, and fundamental balance sheet trends. The next few days will be crucial for setting sentiment ahead of the year-end.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Region / Exchange	Date	Product	Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Poland (farmgate dry corn avg.)	2025-12-08	Corn	692.08 PLN/t	-0.84 PLN/t	Stable
France (offer, FOB Paris)	2025-12-05	Yellow Corn	0.19 EUR/kg	-0.01 EUR/kg	Soft
Ukraine (offer, FCA Odesa)	2025-12-05	Yellow Feed Corn	0.23 EUR/kg	0 EUR	Steady
Ukraine (offer, FOB Odesa)	2025-12-05	Corn	0.18 EUR/kg	0 EUR	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Poland: Small gains in average corn prices, but changes are statistically insignificant, reflecting sluggish momentum.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Export offers steady; corridor logistics mostly unimpeded, but regional competition is persistent.
• France: Competitive pricing with minor week-on-week decline.
• Global: Soft feed demand in Asia, high inventories in some importing countries, and lower freight rates support price stability.
• Speculation: Neutral, with neither strong buying nor selling pushing prices sharply in either direction.

📊 Fundamental Data & Comparisons

Country	2025/26 Estimated Production (mln t)	Stocks (mln t)	Year-on-Year Change (%)
USA	383	60	+2.5%
Ukraine	30	2.1	+3%
Brazil	120	10.7	-1.5%
EU	54	4.7	+0.5%
China (import need)	–	206	Flat

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Poland & Central Europe: Mild December with above-average temperatures, moderate precipitation; little risk to current storage or subsequent planting windows.
• Ukraine: Weather stable, adequate soil moisture; winterkill risk low as of now.
• Brazil & Argentina: Key watch—La Niña projections indicate below-normal rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina’s Pampas, raising yields risks if deficits persist.

📝 Key Market Insights & Drivers

• USDA data shows stable world stocks, with only minor shifts forecasted.
• Feed demand remains subdued in parts of Asia, with Chinese strategic buying yet to resume forcefully.
• Speculative positioning neutral; hedge funds neither increasing nor cutting exposure strongly.
• Renewed Black Sea exports are keeping the global supply situation calm, but ongoing political or weather surprises could quickly upset regional or global flows.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider staggered sales as prices hold steady but volatility potential remains high.
• Buyers/Feedmills: Monitor offers closely as physical market strengthens below 700 PLN/t in Poland, but global offers present hedging opportunities.
• Traders: Watch for logistics disruptions or weather impacts in South America as critical price catalysts.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Dec 9	Dec 10	Dec 11
Poland dry corn (PLN/t)	692	693	693
France FOB Paris (EUR/kg)	0.19	0.18	0.18
Ukraine FOB Odesa (EUR/kg)	0.18	0.18	0.18