Soybean Markets Sink to Multi-Week Lows: Exports Falter, Weather Risks Loom

The global soybean market is facing a pivotal moment as prices have retraced sharply from recent highs, retreating to levels not seen in over a month. After a short-lived rally in November, bearish sentiment dominates, with US soybean futures on the CBOT falling to a six-week low. Lingering trade tensions between the US and China—exacerbated by sluggish Chinese import activity—continue to put a lid on export optimism. The latest USDA data reflect a hesitant recovery in sales, while shipping volumes out of US ports remain well below historical averages. The anticipated WASDE report is further heightening uncertainty; most analysts expect a further upward revision of US and global ending stocks, pointing towards an oversupplied market. Meanwhile, South America’s weather patterns are mixed. Brazil is enjoying favorable rainfall, enhancing yield prospects, but Argentina faces pockets of stress due to below-average precipitation. The EU’s soybean and oilseed complex is slightly insulated due to reduced imports, but the competitive pressure from weak canola and rapeseed prices persists. With speculative positioning cautious and logistical challenges ongoing, traders and industry players need to stay nimble as the outlook hinges on upcoming official data and volatile global demand flows.

📈 Prices at a Glance

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Unit	Sentiment
CBOT	Jan 26	1,091.50 US-Cent	-0.21%	bushel	Bearish
CBOT	Mar 26	1,104.00 US-Cent	-0.16%	bushel	Bearish
DCE	Jan 26	4,084 CNY	-0.10%	ton	Neutral
DCE	Mar 26	4,095 CNY	-0.15%	ton	Neutral
EUR FOB US	Spot	0.45 EUR/kg	+7.1%	FOB	Firm/Supported
EUR FOB IN	Spot	0.85 EUR/kg	+6.3%	FOB	Firm/Supported
EUR FOB UA	Spot	0.35 EUR/kg	+2.9%	FOB	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• US soybean export inspections (week ending Dec 4): just 1.02 million tons, -41.4% y/y; season-to-date exports at 12.9 million tons, -45% y/y
• China’s purchases remain subdued, with new commitments (USDA: 132,000 tons for 2025/26) falling short of trade deal promises
• EU crushers increasingly source within the bloc due to lower imports, lending support to local prices despite lackluster international trade
• Canola and rapeseed markets in Canada (ICE) under significant pressure—multi-month lows—further dampening oilseed complex sentiment
• Market awaits the imminent WASDE report; consensus sees higher ending stock forecasts for both US and world balance sheets

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Speculative positions: CFTC data (most recent) shows funds mildly net-long but recent price weakness likely reducing net exposure
• USDA Exports: Latest booked sales (up to Nov 6): 510,554 tons of soybeans, at low end of expectations; soybean meal and oil sales also sluggish
• Oil and meal markets: CBOT soybean oil (Jan 26) last at 51.06 US-Cent/lb (-0.23%), soybean meal (Jan 26) at 306.20 USD/short ton (-0.03%)
• Product price snapshot (FOB):
  • US, conventional No. 2: 0.45 EUR/kg
  • IN, sortex clean: 0.85 EUR/kg
  • UA, conventional: 0.35 EUR/kg
  • CN, yellow, organic: 0.77 EUR/kg
  • CN, yellow, conv.: 0.68 EUR/kg

☀️ Weather Outlook & Risks

• Brazil: Recent beneficial rainfall improving crop establishment; isolated areas in the South facing moderate delays due to excessive precipitation
• Argentina: Mixed signals—long-term dryness in some northern regions could trim yield prospects if pattern persists in key pod-filling months
• US: Harvest largely complete, but soil moisture deficits (especially in the Delta/South) could impact next season’s planting decisions
• Short-term forecast: Wetter-than-normal trends in Mato Grosso (BR), storms in Pampas (AR), and continued mild, dry weather over US Midwest

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Region	2024/25 Production (MT)	2025/26 Stocks (MT, Est.)	Key Notes
USA	113.5	8.2	End stocks forecast to rise; exports slow
Brazil	154.0	28.5	Rain improves outlook—record crop possible again
Argentina	52.2	5.8	Yield risks remain due to spotty drought
China (import)	18.0	31.0	Buying subdued, ample stocks
EU	2.7	1.6	Reliant on imports; lower arrivals YTD

📌 Market Drivers & Summary

• US-China trade relations and tariff uncertainties constrain US exports and set a cautious tone for global trade
• Brazen Brazilian crop prospects, barring weather upsets, point to continued competition for US origin soy
• Weak rapeseed/canola markets spill over into oilseed complex, complicating price recovery for soybeans and derived products
• Speculators and hedgers increasingly defensive—volumes suggest risk-averse trading until post-WASDE clarity
• Logistics—US port shipments underwhelm, leading to residual stocks building up

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT (US): Sideways to slightly lower. 1,090–1,100 US-Cent/bu
• DCE (China): Stable with limited upside. 4,080–4,120 CNY/t
• FOB Black Sea (UA): Offered firmer on slow farmer sales. 0.34–0.36 EUR/kg
• FOB US Gulf: Steady but firm undertone due to thin pipeline+strong dollar. 0.44–0.46 EUR/kg
• FOB India: Stable, tight premiums for quality/sortex. 0.84–0.87 EUR/kg

🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term rallies should be viewed as selling opportunities due to ample global supply and export headwinds
• End users: Consider incremental purchases, especially if basis weakens further ahead of WASDE
• Producers: Hedge production where possible; upside capped until evidence of Brazilian/Argentine weather adversity emerges
• Watch for rapid sentiment shift post-WASDE or significant Chinese import deals
• Monitor South American crop progress—any material weather issue may quickly reverse downward price trend