Corn Market Steady as Euronext, CBOT Hold Gains – Global Drivers in Focus

The corn market enters December 2025 with a mood of cautious stability across global exchanges. While Euronext and CBOT futures reflected marginal gains through the past week, the Dalian exchange (DCE) showed a slight pullback, hinting at varying dynamics across continents. Physical market prices for corn are stable or edging marginally lower in key exporting nations like France and Ukraine, indicating ample near-term supply. However, currency volatility, strong South American plantings, and speculators’ lightening positions ahead of USDA releases are creating an undercurrent of uncertainty. Weather in major producing areas remains benign, though dry patches in southern Brazil and cool conditions in the Midwest are closely watched. Add to this the historically high global stocks and a solid demand outlook in Asia, and the result is a market bracing for a shift—are current lows a floor or a pause before renewed volatility? Read on for a comprehensive breakdown of the drivers, fundamentals, and near-term trading outlook for the global corn market.

📈 Prices at Major Exchanges

Exchange	Contract/Month	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (Mais)	Mar 26	€187.75/t	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext (Mais)	Jun 26	€189.75/t	0.00%	Steady
Euronext (Mais)	Aug 26	€195.00/t	0.00%	Stable
CBOT	Dec 25	437.75 USc/bu	+0.34%	Mildly bullish
CBOT	Mar 26	444.25 USc/bu	+0.11%	Neutral
CBOT	May 26	451.75 USc/bu	+0.11%	Rangebound
DCE	Jan 26	¥2273/t	-1.06%	Soft
DCE	Mar 26	¥2244/t	-1.07%	Soft
DCE	May 26	¥2270/t	-0.93%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• US: Export pace normal, but ethanol demand steady rather than strong; latest USDA data suggests higher ending stocks.
• EU: French and Ukrainian FOB prices stable (€0.19/t and €0.18/t, respectively), reflecting adequate farmer selling and ample supplies.
• South America: Early rains have supported Brazil’s planting, but scattered dryness may trim yield potential in southern states.
• Asia: Chinese purchases remain solid, but domestic feed demand growth is slowing following a record 2024 harvest.

📊 Fundamentals and Market Drivers

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE raised US corn ending stocks by 0.5 Mt; global stocks are now projected at multi-year highs.
• Crop Acreage: US acreage seen steady year-on-year, with slight increases in Brazil and Argentina expected.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net short on CBOT corn but has trimmed some exposure into December data releases.
• Global Inventories: Strong stocks in the US, EU, and China cap rallies, yet global trade flow is seen robust due to feed demand in Asia and Africa.
• Physical Market: Recent European and Black Sea FOB offers for yellow corn range near €0.18–0.19/kg; feed grade corn in Ukraine holds at €0.23/kg (FCA).

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impacts

• US Midwest: Above average precipitation last week; soil moisture remains adequate—a mild positive for post-harvest field management.
• Brazil: Central regions favorable, but below-normal rainfall in RS/Paraná raising yield concerns for the first safrinha crop.
• Argentina: Cooler weather prevails, but no critical dryness observed. Early crop conditions rated “good” to “very good”.
• Ukraine / EU: Winter dormancy set in with sufficient soil moisture, reducing winterkill risk.

🌏 Major Producers – Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Est, Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
USA	387	53
China	288	205
Brazil	117	10
Argentina	54	5
EU-27	62	9
Ukraine	33	2

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Choppy price action likely—traders should watch for surprises in USDA December reports.
• Physical buyers can secure supplies at current levels, especially for Q1 and Q2 2026 positions, given ample stocks and soft basis.
• For exporters, limited upside expected unless South American production risks materialize.
• Bullish breakout requires significant weather-driven supply loss or unexpected demand spike.
• Short-term hedging favored for feed manufacturers; hold off on long-term coverage as market remains well supplied.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Euronext	Mar 26	€187.75	€187.75	€188.00
CBOT	Mar 26	444 c/bu	444 c/bu	445 c/bu
DCE	Mar 26	¥2240	¥2242	¥2245

Regional physical prices (EUR/kg): French Yellow Corn (Paris, FOB): €0.19 ↓, Ukraine Yellow Corn (Odesa, FOB): €0.18 ↔, UA Feed Corn (FCA): €0.23 ↔