Oats Under Pressure: Sharp Price Declines and Shifting Market Sentiment

The global oat market is currently navigating a period of pronounced downward price corrections, as illustrated by the latest data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Contract prices for oats across multiple delivery months have registered significant losses, with near-term December and deferred contracts through 2027 mostly posting declines between 2% and 3%. This sharp negative movement comes amid relatively light trading volumes and subdued market participation, reflecting both fundamental supply pressures and broader market uncertainty.

At the same time, the FOB price for Ukrainian feed oats in Odesa continues to hover at the low level of €0.25/bu, highlighting persistent export competition from the Black Sea region. With supply-side headwinds prevailing, traders are increasingly focused on developments in global weather and crop prospects, as well as the early signals from speculative positioning and changes in open interest. Against this backdrop, market participants are carefully monitoring global production outlooks, weather anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, and potential demand shifts from major importers.

📈 Prices

Contract	Close (US-Cent/bu)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Dec 25	287.50	-3.04%	Bearish
Mar 26	299.00	-0.17%	Neutral
May 26	307.75	+0.08%	Stable
Jul 26	313.00	-2.42%	Bearish
Sep 26	312.50	-2.42%	Bearish
Dec 26	317.50	-2.38%	Bearish

Spot Market (Feed Oats, Odesa, FCA): 0.25 EUR/bu (unchanged from previous week)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global supplies remain comfortable, with Canadian and EU harvests coming in stronger than initial projections, offsetting poor yields in select US states.
• Demand is subdued, as feed compounders have filled forward needs; limited end-user buying reported in global markets.
• Ukrainian oats continue to flow into export channels despite regional logistical challenges, pressuring Black Sea and EU prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Outlook: U.S. oat stocks-to-use ratio is forecast above 13%, meaning a comfortable buffer and little price support.
• Speculator Positioning: Declining open interest and weak volume suggest funds are exiting longs and holding or building shorts – amplifying current bearish sentiment.
• Acreage & Yield: Early Northern Hemisphere sowing intentions indicate stable or slightly expanded oat acreage for 2025/26.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• North America: Mild, dry conditions in the northern U.S. Plains and Canadian Prairies could stress newly planted oats but may support fieldwork and early germination.
• Europe: Wetter than normal in Scandinavia and the Baltic, potentially slowing fieldwork but supporting healthy initial crop establishment.
• Black Sea: Mixed precipitation in western Ukraine and southern Russia – no immediate threats to oat prospects, but regional logistics remain a concern.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2024/25 Production (est., Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Trend
USA	1.02	0.39	Stable
Canada	4.25	1.55	Rising
EU	8.10	1.91	Stable
Ukraine + Russia	1.7	0.5	Stable
Australia	1.35	0.29	Stable

📆 Forecast & Outlook

• Short-term risk remains to the downside as supply surpluses weigh and demand stays tepid.
• Potential technical rebound possible if weather shocks occur or speculative selling becomes exhausted.
• Watch for new USDA production forecasts and April acreage reports for potential shifts in sentiment.

Exchange	Contract/Spot	3-Day Price Forecast	Trend
CBOT	Dec 25	285–288 US-Cent/bu	Bearish to Stable
Odesa	Feed, FCA	€0.25–€0.26/bu	Stable

💡 Trading Recommendations

• Short-term selling favored on rallies; maintain caution with large positions ahead of key USDA reports.
• End-users: Consider extending coverage into Q2 2026 on dips, as value likely to be found near current multi-year lows.
• Monitor Black Sea and Canadian news for early warning of supply disruptions or quality downgrades.