The global corn market is at a crossroads in December 2025, with prices showing relative stability but underlying fundamentals and weather risks suggesting the potential for shifts in the months ahead. Key futures contracts across the world’s top exchanges—Euronext (Europe), CBOT (USA), and DCE (China)—have recorded minor changes over the last week, hinting at a cautious market mood. Weakness on the demand side amid ample supply and cautious speculative positioning have kept a lid on rallies, yet traders and market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns in South America and the US, as well as evolving global trade dynamics. While recent USDA and trade data affirm a comfortable global supply, some external factors—such as erratic weather patterns in Argentina and Brazil (both major exporters)—could sway the balance as we move toward 2026. End users continue to benefit from competitive spot prices, but any surprise in the forecast or shifts in international policy could quickly alter the landscape.
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📈 Corn Prices Snapshot
| Exchange | Instrument | Last Price | Currency | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext | Mär 26 | 186.75 | EUR/t | 0.00% | Neutral |
| CBOT | Dez 25 | 440.50 | US-Cent/bu | -0.06% | Soft Bearish |
| CBOT | Mär 26 | 447.75 | US-Cent/bu | -0.06% | Soft Bearish |
| DCE | Jan 26 | 2243 | CYN/t | -1.34% | Bearish |
Spot & Export Prices (as of 2025-12-05)
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn (yellow) | France | Paris | FOB | 0.19 | EUR/kg |
| Corn (yellow feed grade, 98%) | Ukraine | Odesa | FCA | 0.23 | EUR/kg |
| Corn (starch, organic) | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.63 | EUR/kg |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Global stocks-to-use ratios for corn remain comfortable, supported by strong North American harvest and resilient Eastern European supplies.
- USDA’s latest WASDE report indicated downward revision for Brazilian production due to ongoing dryness (El Niño effect), though Argentina crop prospects have improved following recent rains.
- Chinese domestic prices have softened, reflecting import demand saturation and ample local supply.
- US export program is tracking below last year, but robust EU ethanol demand and easing Black Sea logistics support intra-European flows.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Acreage Outlook: US 2026 corn acreage is anticipated to remain steady to moderately lower as farmers weigh margins with soybeans and wheat.
- Producer Selling: Low sales in Argentina suggest caution among farmers, awaiting potential weather-driven price spikes.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money is largely neutral following large liquidations last quarter; open interest on CBOT remains high.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Its Impact
- South America: Central Brazil continues to receive below-average rainfall, stoking production uncertainty, particularly for Safrinha corn. Argentina’s recent rains have replenished soil but dry spells remain a threat.
- US: Weather in the US Corn Belt is seasonally cold but not threatening stored crops or export logistics.
- Europe/Ukraine: Mild autumn benefited late European crops; forecasts call for normal precipitation and moderate temperatures over the next two weeks—constructive for fieldwork, but not bullish.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025/26 Est. Production (Mt) | Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 381 | 44 |
| Brazil | 117 | 9 |
| Argentina | 56 | 4 |
| Ukraine | 30 | 2 |
| EU | 63 | 6 |
| China | 288 | 210 |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Cautious near-term: Rangebound trading expected unless weather shocks in South America escalate.
- End users: Take advantage of the softness in spot and forward prices for coverage through early Q2 2026.
- Producers: Consider selective sales on rallies, especially if forecast models trend wetter in Brazil.
- Traders/specs: Monitor open interest for momentum cues, and watch Chinese demand for any surprise uptick.
- Geopolitical risks (Black Sea, US election year) remain low-volatility tail risks.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange | Contract | Forecast Price (Day 1) | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext | Mär 26 | 186.5 EUR/t | 186.5 EUR/t | 187.0 EUR/t |
| CBOT | Mär 26 | 447 USc/bu | 447.5 USc/bu | 448 USc/bu |
| DCE | Jan 26 | 2240 CYN/t | 2243 CYN/t | 2250 CYN/t |