Corn Market: Ukraine Supply Cut Fuels Cautious Optimism Amid Weather Risks

The global corn market is witnessing a notable shift in sentiment as recent downgrades to Ukraine’s 2025/26 output raise fresh questions about future supply resilience. While the new estimate lowers Ukraine’s crop by 3 million tons to 29 million tons, this figure still sits a solid 8% above last year’s volume, underlining the complex interplay between short-term setbacks and structural recovery. Adverse weather, delayed harvests, and a 5% drop in both anticipated yield (now 6.9 t/ha) and harvested area (down to 4.2 million ha) fuel near-term volatility. These revisions have put additional scrutiny on EU and US production, global stock dynamics, and speculative trading flows. Recent price stability in major corn origins contrasts with softening sentiment in parts of Western Europe and ongoing uncertainty in export-driven regions like Ukraine—especially given shifting logistics, regional weather risks, and USDA’s recalibration of global expectations. As weather forecasts remain pivotal and harvest pressure abates, traders and analysts are recalculating both risk and opportunity for the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update Date	Sentiment
Popcorn	–	BR	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	0.75	0.75	2025-12-05	Stable
Popcorn	Expansion, 40/42	AR	Buenos Aires, AR	FOB	0.80	0.80	2025-12-05	Stable
Corn	Yellow	FR	Paris, FR	FOB	0.19	0.20	2025-12-05	Slightly Bearish
Corn	Starch (Organic)	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	1.63	1.65	2025-12-05	Slightly Bearish
Corn	–	UA	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.18	0.18	2025-12-05	Stable
Corn	Yellow feed, 14.5% moisture, 98% purity	UA	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.23	0.23	2025-12-04	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine 2025/26 crop cut: 3 Mt down to 29 Mt, but still 8% above previous year
• Harvest delays and poor weather led to lower yield (6.9 t/ha) and harvest area (4.2 Mha)
• EU and US output: Stable, but with cautious outlook as lower Ukraine supplies may shift import patterns
• China: Steady imports expected, but may seek alternates if Black Sea instability persists

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Lowered Ukraine’s yield and acreage outlook; global stock-to-use ratio forecasted to remain tight
• Speculative Positioning: Funds slightly net short on CBOT corn amidst weather-driven uncertainty
• Inventories: Tight but not critical—exporters (US, Brazil) expected to cover gap but with less buffer

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Prolonged rain and unusually cool temperatures hamper late harvests and fieldwork; dry relief not expected until next week
• US Midwest: Mild winter forecast, aiding winter field prep but raising soil moisture concerns
• Europe: Drier outlook for France-Spain corridor, potentially limiting late sowings but beneficial for remaining harvest progress

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2025/26 Output (Mt) (Est.)	2025/26 YOY %	Stock Change (Mt)
Ukraine	26.9	29	+8%	-1.2
USA	389	391	+0.5%	+1.5
EU	61	62	+1.6%	+0.2
Brazil	127	123	-3.1%	-1.0
China	289	291	+0.7%	0

🎯 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Weather-driven supply risk argues for cautious buying on weakness in Q1 2026, particularly for physical users in EU/ME markets.
• Exporters: Monitor Black Sea logistics — delays may offer price premium opportunities.
• Speculators: Consolidation phase likely; consider straddle/strangle strategies around key USDA report releases.
• End-users: Secure forward coverage for Q2–Q3 2026 if basis remains favorable.
• Watch for further downward revisions in Brazil (La Niña risk) and Ukraine.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT	Corn Futures (Mar 2026)	~0.17	0.17 – 0.18	Stable to firm
Euronext (MATIF)	Corn (Mar 2026)	~0.19	0.18 – 0.19	Slight downside risk
Ukraine Physical	Corn (FOB Odesa)	0.18	0.18	Stable