Rapeseed Market Struggles Amid Global Oilseed Weakness: MATIF & ICE Insights

The rapeseed market is currently navigating a period marked by significant volatility, placed at the intersection of bearish momentum in world oilseed benchmarks and shifting supply-demand relationships. Over the past week, both the Euronext (MATIF) and ICE Canola futures recorded consecutive declines, mirroring the overall pressure on oilseed complexes exacerbated by falling soybean and palm oil prices. With the latest MATIF rapeseed contracts unchanged but hovering near recent lows, and ICE Canola futures reaching multi-month troughs, traders and processors face increasing uncertainty for the coming quarters. Market sentiment remains tepid, as limited export demand — especially from key destinations like China — continues to dampen expectations of sizable upticks. Recent USDA export sales reports reflected subdued Chinese buying, and the North American oilseed processing industry is showing a seasonal slowdown, though still at robust annual levels. Meanwhile, South American weather remains favorable for the new soybean crop, promising additional export competition for European and North American origins. As pressure builds from external factors, tracking regional offers suggests spot prices are stabilizing for now, though forward-looking concerns around stocks, speculative positioning, and macro-driven commodity trends hint at more volatility ahead.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Euronext MATIF (EUR/t)	Feb 26	475.50	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext MATIF (EUR/t)	May 26	466.00	0.00%	Neutral
Euronext MATIF (EUR/t)	Aug 26	450.75	0.00%	Neutral
ICE Canola (CAD/t)	Jan 26	601.90	-0.76%	Bearish
ICE Canola (CAD/t)	Mar 26	615.30	-0.62%	Bearish
ICE Canola (CAD/t)	May 26	627.30	-0.59%	Bearish

• European physical offers (FCA/FOB) are steady at €0.55–0.60/kg, with little week-on-week movement.
• Market sentiment on MATIF remains neutral, while ICE Canola is slightly bearish on recent weakness.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA export reports: Modest Chinese soybean buying – only 4.2 million tonnes booked so far this year, compared to expectations of 12 million tonnes by year-end.
• South American Crops: Brazilian soybean planting is 97% complete, and upcoming harvests threaten to intensify export competition as early as Q1 2026.
• European rapeseed supply: Large local stocks persist after this year’s harvest, with limited fresh export movement.
• MPOB (Malaysia) data: Weak Malaysian palm oil exports and falling Chinese demand are pressuring all vegetable oil markets, spilling over into rapeseed/canola prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• Fund speculative length in soybeans (CFTC report) reduced by ~15,336 contracts, reflecting more cautious positions.
• NOPA November US soybean crush down 5.1% from October’s record, but up 11.8% year-on-year, keeping product stocks high.
• European rapeseed crush remains strong, but margin pressure persists with low vegetable oil and meal prices.

Region	Production (2024/25, Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
EU	19.7	2.8
Canada	18.3	2.0
Australia	6.2	0.6
China (Import)	2.5	N/A

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impacts

• Europe: Moderate winter weather across France and Germany supports dormant rapeseed crops, with no immediate frost threats. Soil moisture is adequate for a strong start in spring.
• Canada: Prairie regions see above-average snow cover, providing a positive moisture base for spring sowing.
• Black Sea/Ukraine: Mild winter conditions and adequate precipitation; early indicators positive for 2025/26 yield.
• South America: Above-average rainfall in Brazil; excellent soybean condition, likely boosting global oilseed supply and adding further pressure on prices in Q1/Q2 2026.

📌 Trading Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

• Spot market expected to remain rangebound in early 2026 due to strong stocks and limited export drive.
• Downward price risk persists, especially if South American harvests and oilseed exports surge by late Q1.
• Processors should secure forward coverage for Q1-Q2 2026 needs, but not overcommit amid ongoing bearish trends.
• Traders should monitor palm oil and soybean price trends for signal opportunities; speculative shorts may be beneficial in case of further macro-driven downside.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Spot Price	Direction (Next 3 Days)	Forecast Range
Euronext (MATIF)	475.50 EUR/t (Feb 26)	Lower/Sideways	470–477 EUR/t
ICE Canola	601.90 CAD/t (Jan 26)	Lower	598–605 CAD/t
Physical Market (UA, FCA)	0.58–0.60 EUR/kg	Stable	0.57–0.60 EUR/kg
Physical Market (FR, FOB)	0.55 EUR/kg	Stable	0.54–0.56 EUR/kg