Corn Market Squeeze: Global Competition, Ukraine Supply, & Demand Strains

The global corn market is currently balancing on a knife’s edge as supply and demand forces create an intricate web of pressure and opportunity for market participants. Over recent weeks, corn prices on major exchanges such as CBOT and Euronext have been relatively stable, yet beneath the surface significant fundamentals are shifting. The European and global corn markets are facing headwinds from an abundance of competitively priced feed wheat, especially in Chicago, where low wheat prices have kept corn values from rising further. However, support for Euronext contracts has come from a restricted flow of Ukrainian supply, underscoring the importance of Black Sea logistics amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Meanwhile, the latest USDA export report revealed robust US export activity—1.84 million tons booked, beating last year by 73%—underscoring healthy overseas demand even as overall global inventories remain substantial. On the speculative front, fund managers have recently swung from net long to net short on Chicago corn, signaling shifting sentiment and increased volatility potential. Weather remains a critical wildcard, with the next Northern Hemisphere crop hinging on upcoming forecasts for key regions. For professionals and well-informed readers alike, this is a time to monitor fundamentals and weather news closely, as shifting supply factors and speculative positioning could trigger brisk price moves in either direction.

📈 Prices

Euronext Corn (EUR/t) – 16.12.2025 Close

Contract	Last Price (EUR/t)	Change (%)	Open Interest
Mar 26	185.25	0.00%	28,979
Jun 26	187.00	0.00%	14,022
Aug 26	191.50	0.00%	4,333
Nov 26	192.25	0.00%	2,124

CBOT Corn (US-Cent/bu) – 17.12.2025 Early

Contract	Last Price (c/bu)	Change (%)	Open Interest
Mar 26	437.50	+0.23%	736,116
May 26	445.25	+0.17%	214,197
Jul 26	451.75	+0.17%	229,814
Dec 26	459.75	+0.05%	174,221

DCE Corn (CNY/t) – 16.12.2025 Close

Contract	Last Price (CNY/t)	Change (%)
Jan 26	2,226	-0.63%
Mar 26	2,209	-0.77%
May 26	2,245	-0.58%

Spot/Physical Prices (EUR/kg, update: 12.12.2025)

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Trend
Corn, yellow	FR	Paris	FOB	0.18	0.19	↓
Corn	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.17	0.18	↓
Corn, yellow feed grade	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.23	0.23	=
Popcorn	BR	Dordrecht	FCA	0.74	0.75	↓
Popcorn, 40/42	AR	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.79	0.80	↓
Corn, starch/organic	IN	New Delhi	FOB	1.60	1.63	↓

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Large global feed wheat supplies are weighing on US (CBOT) corn prices, increasing competition for feed demand.
• Euronext corn is supported by restricted Ukrainian origination, as Black Sea logistics remain a bottleneck.
• USDA export bookings for the week ending Nov 20 totaled 1.84 million t—strong vs. both expectations and last year (+73%). Yet, they are down from the previous week, suggesting some volatility in forward demand.
• USDA also confirmed a flash sale of 150,320 t of US corn to unknown destinations, signaling ongoing underlying demand.
• Fund positioning (CFTC): Investors turned from a sizable net long (38,127 lots) to a net short (10,872), a significant bearish swing reflecting changing sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global corn inventories remain ample, keeping a lid on rallies despite robust export pace.
• Ukraine’s smaller export volumes lend regional support, but cannot offset global overhang alone.
• Speculators have swung negative, raising the risk of abrupt short-covering rallies if bullish news emerges.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Mild winter so far, good subsoil moisture in core states; forecast turning colder, but no immediate risk to winter cover crops. Planting outlook for 2026 hinges on spring wetness.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Warmer, wetter than average. No major impacts to overwintering, but port logistics remain a concern.
• South America (Brazil/Argentina): Mixed. Southern Brazil & Argentina improved by periodic rainfall, but some dryness persists in key Mato Grosso and Cordoba belts. Weather over coming weeks will be crucial for safrinha planting and pollination.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

• USA: Largest exporter, ending stocks up in latest USDA WASDE, but high export pace keeping burdens in check.
• Ukraine: Below-average crop for 2025/2026 amid export and infrastructure challenges.
• Brazil: Projected record safrinha crop, but weather risks remain for key regions.
• China: Significant importer; some relief from local harvest, but demand remains robust.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Black Sea export pace and logistics developments—the main regional support for Euronext.
• USDA export numbers and flash sales may trigger short-covering if strong demand persists.
• Weather developments in South America are crucial for global balance sheets. Adverse conditions could spark rallies.
• Speculative net short position increases upside risk if markets are caught off guard by supply disruptions or weather.
• Feed wheat competition to remain a bearish factor for CBOT, but less so for EU-origin corn.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Direction	Comment
Euronext	➡️ Stable to slightly firm	Supported by tight Ukrainian flows
CBOT	⬇️ Mildly bearish	Pressure from cheap feed wheat and fund shorts
DCE	➡️ Stable	Weaker fundamentals offset by local demand stability