The international soya market stands at a strategic juncture as 2025 draws to a close. After months of steady price recovery, recent exchange data show a nuanced picture: while Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soya oil and meal futures remain stable with modest gains, Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soya bean prices saw a modest decline. Demand pull, harvest volumes, and new weather uncertainties—particularly in South American growing regions—shape the core risks and opportunities ahead. Producers in the US, India, Ukraine, and China are evaluating trade flows, with FOB prices this week showing a mild price uptick for US and Indian soybeans, contrasting with small declines in China and Ukraine. These short-term moves follow seasonal supply acceleration, robust but slightly fading Chinese purchasing, and revisions to USDA’s South American crop outlook. Meanwhile, speculative positioning remains within historical averages and physical inventories are ample, but all eyes now turn to a fresh wave of weather analytics that may determine export volumes in the first quarter of 2026. Volatility could resurface quickly if precipitation shortfalls or heat spells continue in the critical Brazilian Midwest and Argentinian Pampas, both of which face longstanding El Niño-related yield threats. For industry players, careful hedging and vigilance around trade execution will be crucial to navigate a market that remains well-supplied, yet finely balanced.
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📈 Prices at a Glance
| Exchange | Product | Nearest Month | Last Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | Soya Oil | Jan 2026 | 48.39 US-Cent/lb | +0.03 (0.06%) | Mildly Bullish |
| CBOT | Soya Meal | Jan 2026 | 303.50 USD/Short ton | +1.10 (0.36%) | Slightly Bullish |
| DCE | Soybeans (No.1) | Jan 2026 | 4102 CNY/t | -40.00 (-0.98%) | Bearish |
| Physical (FOB US) | Soybeans (No.2) | Dec 2025 | 0.47 EUR/kg | +0.02 | Mildly Bullish |
| Physical (FOB IN) | Soybeans (Sortex Clean) | Dec 2025 | 0.87 EUR/kg | +0.02 | Stable |
| Physical (FOB UA) | Soybeans | Dec 2025 | 0.34 EUR/kg | -0.01 | Mildly Bearish |
| Physical (FOB CN) | Soybeans (Yellow, Organic) | Dec 2025 | 0.75 EUR/kg | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Physical (FOB CN) | Soybeans (Yellow) | Dec 2025 | 0.68 EUR/kg | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Update
- Global production forecast: USDA estimates remain slightly below last year’s highs, but new Brazilian crop progress is facing climate risks; Argentinian planting is lagging amid dry soils.
- Export flows: US shipments to China slowed in December, partially offset by Indian and Ukrainian exports to Southeast Asia and the EU.
- Inventory update: Major exporters (Brazil, US) hold larger than average on-farm stocks, with Chinese port inventories stable to modestly lower, reflecting ongoing import demand but strong domestic crushing.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- USDA Reports: Latest WASDE confirms smaller South American yield prospects but projects global carryover stocks near 105 million tons—still comfortable but trending lower.
- Crop Acreage: US and Brazilian bean areas are both up 2-3% YoY, but adverse weather could trim achievable yields.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net long but has pared positions by 5% from November’s peak.
- Demand Signals: China maintains robust full-year purchases, but week-on-week volumes are softening as Brazilian soy comes to market.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Brazil: Current forecasts (Dec 2025) indicate below-normal rainfall in the Mato Grosso and Paraná. Concerns over pod filling and late planting persist. Up to 20% of planned area may see moderate yield reduction if dryness persists into January.
- Argentina: El Niño’s lingering effects: variable showers, high temperatures; Pampas region soy still stressed, with scattered replanting efforts. Production risk remains elevated.
- US Midwest: Offseason; no material crop risk until March 2026 planting window opens.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Mt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 162 | 32 |
| US | 117 | 24 |
| Argentina | 48 | 6 |
| China | 19 | 29 |
| India | 12 | 2 |
| EU | 3 | 2 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor weather developments in Brazil and Argentina closely through January—further drought or heat could spike CBOT futures.
- Physical buyers: Lock in current contract prices for Q1/Q2 needs; premiums are modest and stocks remain comfortable.
- Exporters: Target short-term shipments to China and Southeast Asia while demand holds; consider forward hedges as volatility risk increases.
- Speculators: Maintain moderate long positioning; escalate stop-loss discipline if South American weather improves or Chinese demand slips further.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange | Product | Spot Price Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | Soya Oil | 48.40 – 48.60 US-Cent/lb | Neutral/Bullish |
| CBOT | Soya Meal | 303.5 – 305 USD/Short ton | Slightly Bullish |
| DCE | Soybeans (No.1) | 4090 – 4120 CNY/t | Stable/Weak |
| Physical (FOB US) | Soybeans | 0.47 – 0.48 EUR/kg | Stable/Bullish |
| Physical (FOB IN) | Soybeans | 0.87 – 0.88 EUR/kg | Stable |
| Physical (FOB UA) | Soybeans | 0.34 – 0.35 EUR/kg | Stable/Weak |
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