Corn Market Dips: Ukrainian Pressure, Price Slides, and EU Signals

The global corn market has entered a phase of notable adjustment this week, accentuated by pronounced downward price pressure in Ukraine’s feed corn sector. This dynamic is reshaping not only local Ukrainian grain exchanges but is also sending reverberations through European and world markets. Such adjustments are primarily tied to a surge in grain supplies following the latest harvest and a parallel shift in export market conditions. The market mood in Ukraine, a pivotal exporter, has shifted materially — demand prices retreated by 100–200 UAH/t in under a week, with feed corn now quoted between 8,500 and 9,900 UAH/t CPT (as of December 15), the decline most pronounced across the southern regions. Neighboring EU states and major importers are watching the trend closely, weighing its implications amidst a broader context of fluctuating weather, ongoing logistical challenges at Black Sea ports, and growing speculative activity on major exchanges like CBOT and Euronext. This evolving landscape presents both risks and opportunities to global actors, especially as international FOB and spot prices show continued softness despite firming demand in some feed and industrial sectors.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Origin	Product	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/t)	Previous Price (EUR/t)	Update Date	Sentiment
Brazil (BR)	Popcorn	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	0.74	0.75	2025-12-12	Bearish
Argentina (AR)	Popcorn (40/42 exp.)	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.79	0.80	2025-12-12	Bearish
France (FR)	Corn (yellow)	Paris	FOB	0.18	0.19	2025-12-12	Bearish
India (IN)	Corn (starch, organic)	New Delhi	FOB	1.60	1.63	2025-12-12	Bearish
Ukraine (UA)	Corn	Odesa	FOB	0.17	0.18	2025-12-12	Bearish
Ukraine (UA)	Corn (yellow feed, 14.5% moisture, 98%)	Odesa	FCA	0.23	0.23	2025-12-11	Stable/Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine: Notable increase in farmer sales post-harvest, boosting spot market supplies.
• EU: Corn buying remains cautious, with strong attention on Ukrainian offers and price competitiveness.
• Export Markets: Mildly sluggish due to limited Black Sea loadings; speculative traders adjusting positions downwards.
• Global: China and North Africa demand steady but not enough to offset supply push.

USDA & Inventories

• The latest USDA WASDE reported slightly higher global stocks and robust US output.
• Ukrainian production estimated stable, but exports face logistical and competitive price roadblocks vs. Brazil and the US.

📊 Market Fundamentals

Country	2024/25 Production (mln t)	2024/25 Exports (mln t)	2024/25 Stocks (mln t)
USA	388*	60*	56*
Brazil	113*	55*	11*
Ukraine	28*	22*	2*
EU	66*	6*	11*
China	277*	<1	210*

*USDA & trade estimates, Dec 2024

☁️ Weather Watch & Crop Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent mild weather has promoted good late-harvest activity and stable grain quality. War risk and winter outlook remain wild cards.
• US Midwest: Mildly wetter pattern observed, favorable for winter grain establishment but late maize quality could be variable.
• South America: Brazil’s key second crop faces some La Niña dryness risk into late December, but current conditions mostly stable.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term bias: Bearish, with further downside possible as Ukrainian and Brazilian grain flood export markets.
• Buyers: Consider scaling in coverage for Q1/Q2 2025, especially if price weakness intensifies below benchmark FOB levels.
• Sellers: Accelerate sales on rallies and watch for signs of stabilization in Black Sea logistics.
• Risk watch: Monitor weather (especially Black Sea/US and South American crops) and speculative fund movements on CBOT.

🔮 3-day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	3-day Price Forecast (EUR/t)	Direction
CBOT	Corn (Nearby)	162-165	Lower/Sideways
Euronext	Corn (Mar-25)	188-191	Lower
Ukraine CPT	Feed corn	8,400–9,900 UAH/t (approx. 0.21–0.24 EUR/kg)	Lower