Raisins Market Squeeze: Farmer Frustration, Export Slowdown & Price Tensions

The global Raisins market is facing heightened volatility and stakeholder dissatisfaction as we approach the end of the year. Turkish farmers find themselves squeezed by recent interventions from the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), which opened purchasing queues ostensibly to stabilize the market, but ended up being filled predominantly by traders leveraging others’ quotas. As a result, many farmers are unable to sell their raisins directly at desirable rates—traders buy from them at 85-90 TL/kg and resell at 110-120 TL/kg, creating significant frustration and allegations of unfair market access.

This climate of discontent is exacerbated by uncertainty on the export front: many global buyers are on holiday and are reluctant to lock in new prices. The market is under additional pressure from the influx of imported scrap raisins, particularly for use in the alcohol industry, effectively curbing supplemental farmer income from their own byproducts. Export volumes are expected to remain low in the coming week, which aligns with cautious sentiment among exporters awaiting clearer post-holiday demand signals and raw material cost indications. All eyes are on what measures might emerge in the new year to address both the market access bottlenecks and inbound lower-grade competition, making the upcoming period critical for Turkish—and global—raisin producers and traders alike.

📈 Prices & Exchanges

Origin	Type/Grade	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
TR	Sultanas, type 9, RTU	MALATYA	CIF	2.40	0%	Stable
TR	Sultanas, type 9, grade A	MALATYA	FOB	3.20	0%	Stable
TR	Sultanas, type 8, grade A	MALATYA	FOB	3.15	0%	Stable
TR	Sultanas, type 10, grade A	MALATYA	FOB	3.30	0%	Firm
TR	Sultanas, type 9, organic	MALATYA	FOB	4.00	0%	Steady (premium)
CN	Sultanas, type 9, RTU STD	Hamburg	FCA	2.09	+0.5%	Soft
IN	Golden, grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	2.05	+2.5%	Firming
IN	Brown, grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.59	+3.2%	Rising
IN	Black, grade AA	New Delhi	FOB	1.55	+3.3%	Rising
CL	Flame Jumbo	Dordrecht	FCA	2.50	+2%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Turkey: TMO’s intervention capped at limited supply intake; traders dominate the queue, distorting pricing and access for farmers.
• Exports: Year-end shipping has slowed sharply—many buyers are on holiday and pushing new orders to January.
• Domestic: Farmer sales to TMO are restrained; many considering holding inventory into the new year for expected price recovery as exporter buying resumes.
• Global: Steady international demand, but softening recently with buyers waiting for clarity post-holidays/Chinese New Year.
• Disruptions: Cheap scrap raisin imports undermine local farmers’ secondary income streams, adding further downward pressure.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• TMO Policy: Government-run procurement policy has skewed market functioning, inviting calls for regulatory review in 2025.
• Price Gaps: Significant delta between farmgate (85-90 TL/kg) and trader sale (110-120 TL/kg) points to urgent need for direct farmer support or quota reform.
• Speculation & Positioning: Uncertainty prevails—no new offers by exporters as raw material and demand clarity is awaited post-holiday.
• Last Year Comparison: Market structure similar but less acute last year; 2024 saw more intense trader involvement and greater price friction, with export volatility spiking due to emerging regulatory and competitor (India/China) factors.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Turkey (Manisa, Malatya): Mild winter conditions so far, with sufficient precipitation but occasional frost warnings—so far no major reported crop losses. Monitoring for late-season severe weather is ongoing.
• India: End of harvest, stable climatic conditions expected to support above-average yields.
• California: Recent dry spell, but forecasted light rains may mitigate further yield risk.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparisons

Country	2024/25 Est. Production (kt)	Stocks (kt)	Key Notes
Turkey	330	70	Farmer inventories higher due to slow sales
USA	180	60	Stocks stable, output steady
Iran	120	30	Output slightly up YoY
India	170	40	Strong output, rising exports
China	75	28	Significant price competition

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Wait for post-holiday market clarity before committing to large contracts.
• Monitor Turkish policy developments on TMO access and export quotas—potential for market shake-up in Q1 2025.
• Short-term supply tightness due to slow farmer sales may give limited support to prices in Jan 2025.
• Downside risk if scrap import volumes increase or if TMO does not adjust quotas soon.
• Hedge long positions for exporters; consider inventory holding for producers seeking better margins post-holiday.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Driver
MALATYA (TR, Sultana 9, RTU, CIF)	2.40	2.38 – 2.42	Soft demand, steady local sales
MALATYA (TR, Sultana 9, grade A, FOB)	3.20	3.18 – 3.23	Low liquidity, exporters inactive
Dordrecht (NL, TR origin, NR9, RTU, FCA)	2.90	2.88 – 2.92	Imports, limited spot activity
Hamburg (CN origin, Sultana 9, RTU STD, FCA)	2.09	2.07 – 2.11	Ample supply, price pressure

Note: Price movements expected to remain in tight ranges before the next wave of exporter tenders and clearer government policy changes in Turkey.