Corn Market Faces Contrasting Pressures: Exports, Imports & Weather in Focus

The global corn market is navigating a period of mixed signals: export demand remains supported, yet broader sentiment is dampened by macroeconomic uncertainty, weak energy prices, and intense competition from alternative feed grains. U.S. corn prices have been steadied by strong export sales, but headwinds arise from an uncertain U.S. bioethanol mandate, falling crude oil prices, and weak labor data. In Europe, corn imports continue to lag well below last year’s pace—down 20% year-on-year according to the European Commission—with Ukrainian shipments plunging from 5.1 million to just 1.8 million tonnes, only moderately offset by increased imports from Brazil and the U.S. At the same time, huge harvests and lower prices for feed wheat in Argentina and Australia threaten U.S. corn’s share in global feed markets. Chinese demand remains steady, but a recent mild weather outlook for the U.S. Corn Belt, South America, and Eastern Europe points to relatively benign conditions. With volatility ahead from regulatory and weather developments, market participants must stay nimble.

📈 Prices: Key Corn Futures & Physical Offers

Exchange/Market	Contract/Type	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
Euronext	Mar 26	185.25	0.00%	EUR/t	Stable
Euronext	Jun 26	186.75	0.00%	EUR/t	Stable
CBOT	Mar 26	441.75	+0.28%	US-Cent/bu	Slightly bullish
CBOT	May 26	449.25	+0.34%	US-Cent/bu	Slightly bullish
DCE	Jan 26	2221.00	-0.23%	CNY/t	Softening
DCE	Mar 26	2206.00	-0.14%	CNY/t	Softening
	Physical: France (FOB)	0.18	-5.26%	EUR/kg	Bearish
	Physical: Ukraine (FOB)	0.17	-5.56%	EUR/kg	Bearish
	Physical: Ukraine feed (FCA)	0.23	0.00%	EUR/kg	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• U.S. Export Demand: Still robust, supporting CBOT prices despite broader weakness in grains.
• EU Imports: Down by 20% YoY (7.49 Mt so far), driven by a collapse in Ukrainian deliveries and only partial compensation from Brazil and the U.S.
• Alternative Grains: Cheap feed wheat from Argentina/Australia putting downward price pressure on corn in global feed rations.
• Bioethanol Uncertainty (U.S.): EPA ruling on 2026 mandates delayed; timing is a key risk for forward pricing.
• Oil and Macro Headwinds: Falling crude prices and weak U.S. jobs data undermine biofuel-linked corn demand.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

Region	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Inventories Trend	Export/Import Change YoY
USA	384 (est.)	Up	Exports steady to higher
Brazil	123 (est.)	Down	Exports up
Argentina	56 (est.)	Up	Exports up (feed wheat pressure)
EU	61 (est.)	Flat/slightly down	Imports down 20%
Ukraine	27 (est.)	Down	Exports sharply down
China	282 (est.)	Stable	Imports stable

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Corn Belt: Mild temperatures and average to above-average precipitation expected, supporting soil moisture ahead of spring planting. No major stress seen on current stocks.
• South America (Brazil & Argentina): Conditions favorable—ample rainfall, mostly beneficial for late corn stages and replenishing subsoil moisture.
• Eastern Europe: Mild and wet weather should maintain favorable pre-spring conditions for EU corn; no major threats anticipated.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Exporters should remain flexible—consider pre-hedging future sales but stay alert for volatility if EPA bioethanol rules shift market perception in early 2026.
• Feed users may see continued downside risks as feed wheat availability rises in world markets.
• EU importers: Monitor Brazilian/U.S. offers competitively but beware of logistics squeezes in Q2-Q3 2026.
• Bulls should watch for any unexpected weather shocks—otherwise, trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.
• Short-term players: Tighten stops as macro headwinds remain strong and volatility likely near USDA/EPA announcements.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Euronext (Mar 26): 184–187 EUR/t (steady, minor technical volatility possible)
• CBOT (Mar 26): 440–446 USc/bu (sideways-to-firm as export activity continues)
• DCE (Mar 26): 2200–2215 CNY/t (soft, risk of further slip if Chinese demand weakens short-term)

[p]Last report comparison: Physical and futures corn prices have softened compared to one week ago, with European imports remaining slow and a slight firming in U.S. forward export activity. The latest addition is a more positive South American weather outlook, which tempers bullish supply concerns further.[/p]