Sunflower Market Rallies: Strong South African Futures, Global Oil Weakness, and New Drivers

The global sunflower market finds itself navigating opposing forces as we close in on year-end. South African SAFEX sunflower contracts surged notably, with the December 2025 delivery climbing ZAR 480 (+4.09%) to close at ZAR 11,730/t. Yet, broader oilseed markets—led by weak Canola futures in Canada, suppressed global palm oil prices, and declining soybean markets in the US—have signaled caution, reflecting export weaknesses, regulatory uncertainties in biodiesel, and bumper crop prospects in Brazil. EU imports of oilseeds are down sharply, boosting the strategic value of sunflower and rapeseed within the bloc, but currency strength and growing rapeseed acreage temper support. Weather will play a crucial role in the coming months as La Niña conditions and inconsistent precipitation emerge across Black Sea and South African growing regions. Producers, traders, and processors should closely monitor these triggers, as positioning could rapidly shift in either direction. The current spot market for sunflower seeds and kernels shows slight pricing pressure, particularly out of China and Eastern Europe, yet recent stability may foster renewed buying as 2026 contracts take clearer shape.

📈 Prices: Sunflower Futures & Spot Market Overview

Exchange/Market	Product	Contract/Type	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
SAFEX (South Africa)	Sunflower	Dec 2025	ZAR 11,730/t	+4.09%	Bullish
SAFEX	Sunflower	Jan 2026	ZAR 10,800/t	+0.26%	Firm
SAFEX	Sunflower	Mar 2026	ZAR 9,594/t	+0.20%	Steady
SAFEX	Sunflower	Apr 2026	ZAR 9,000/t	0.00%	Neutral
Spot (CN, FOB)	Sunflower seeds	Black with stripe (98%)	€1.47/kg	-3.9%	Soft
Spot (CN, FOB)	Sunflower kernels	Hulled, confection	€1.04/kg	-1.0%	Soft
Spot (UA, FCA)	Sunflower kernels	Hulled, bakery	€0.93/kg	0%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• South Africa: Robust gains in SAFEX futures reflect local buying and hedge repositioning, but volume is moderate. Weather and next season’s planting intentions are pivotal.
• EU Imports: Rapeseed and soybean imports down sharply (-40% and -13% y/y, respectively), supporting sunflower complex as an alternative. Import volumes remain well below average.
• Rapeseed Dynamics: Expected increase in French rapeseed acreage (+80,000 ha y/y; total 1.34m ha) weighing on EU oilseeds, yet sunflower may benefit if rapeseed plantings fail amid weather swings.
• Palm & Canola Pressure: Record-low palm oil closes in Malaysia and falling canola prices (ICE March contract at CAD 611.30/t) reflect broad edible oil weakness—potential spillover effect for sunflowers.
• Speculative Positioning: Uncertainty on biodiesel regulation (US EPA to rule on blend targets in early 2026), combined with wait-and-see approach from large importers (e.g., China for Canola), could shift funds’ positioning rapidly.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Global Stocks: 2025/26 projections point to steady global sunflower seed stocks, but Black Sea production (Ukraine, Russia) is a wild card amid weather and ongoing conflicts.
• Currency Strength: A firmer Euro adds pressure to EU oilseeds. South African Rand volatility could affect export competitiveness.
• Alternative Oils: With palm oil and soybean oil under pressure, sunflower oil’s premium may narrow further unless supply risks escalate in main producing regions.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Black Sea (Ukraine & Russia): Current La Niña conditions bring uncertainty. Forecast models show risk of below-normal precipitation in southern Russia and parts of Ukraine for the next two weeks—could affect germination and early establishment.
• South Africa: Recent rainfall has improved short-term prospects, but uneven distribution leaves central and western production zones exposed to dryness into January.
• Europe: Mild winter so far supports establishment, but upcoming January cold snaps may prove critical for overwintering crops.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Snapshot

Country	2025/26 Output (mt, est.)	2024/25 Stocks (mt)	Trend
Ukraine	16.1	2.2	Stable/Weather risk
Russia	15.6	1.8	Stable/Weather risk
EU (total)	10.6	1.1	Up
Argentina	4.1	0.6	Down
South Africa	0.85	0.12	Up

📌 Trading Outlook & Key Takeaways

• Producers: Consider forward hedging part of production, as forward premiums on SAFEX are notable. Monitor weather updates and manage cash flow in anticipation of price swings.
• Buyers/Processors: Spot weakness in Chinese/Eastern European sunflower kernels could offer short-term procurement opportunities. Watch for potential rebounds if broader oilseed market stabilizes.
• Traders: Volatility in the wider vegoil complex suggests caution; positioning ahead of USDA and EPA updates may be high-risk/high-reward. Currency hedges warranted, especially for EUR and ZAR exposures.
• General: Watch EU rapeseed and soybean import flows for early signals of substitution demand shifts into sunflower complex in Q1 2026.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Direction	Price Range	Sentiment
SAFEX (Sunflower Dec 25)	↑	ZAR 11,600–12,100/t	Bullish/volatile
CN, FOB Sunflower Seeds	↓	€1.44–1.47/kg	Slight downtrend
BG, FCA Sunflower Kernels	–	€0.93–0.95/kg	Stable
UA, FCA Sunflower Seeds	–	€0.56–0.62/kg	Stable