Rice Market Shifts: Price Jumps, Supply Signals & Forecasts Ahead

The international rice market is currently navigating a complex landscape of moderate price strength, resilient supply flows, and evolving global trade patterns. After several turbulent months marked by climatic and policy shocks, recent weeks have brought a sense of cautious optimism to traders. Rice futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have displayed modest gains across forward contracts, with notable strength in the May 2026 (+2.20%), July 2026 (+1.70%), and September 2026 (+1.67%) expiries. Conversely, physical market offers from India and Vietnam have remained steady, underlining a short-term balance between export availability and global import demand. Meanwhile, macroeconomic headwinds such as currency fluctuations, shipping bottlenecks in the Red Sea, and fluctuating fertilizer costs continue to ripple across the market. Weather-wise, the dominant suppliers—particularly India and Southeast Asia—are watching the next harvest cycle closely, with meteorological data hinting at a mixed but largely benign outlook for yields. Speculative positioning also signals a measured confidence, with agents reducing their net-short holdings in related grain commodities. While global rice supplies remain ample, ongoing policy shifts—such as India’s intermittently revised export restrictions—are being monitored closely by buyers. With this backdrop, traders and food industry buyers face a period defined by moderate volatility, where careful market timing and portfolio diversification will be key.

📈 Rice Prices at Key Exchanges

Contract	Last Price (USD/cwt)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT Jan 2026	9.64	+0.06 (+0.63%)	Bullish
CBOT Mar 2026	9.97	+0.06 (+0.61%)	Bullish
CBOT May 2026	10.20	+0.22 (+2.20%)	Bullish
CBOT Jul 2026	10.48	+0.17 (+1.70%)	Bullish
CBOT Sep 2026	10.69	+0.17 (+1.67%)	Bullish

Type / Origin	FOB Price (EUR/kg, India)	FOB Price (EUR/kg, Vietnam)
All Golden, Sella	1.00	–
Alısteam, Sharbati	0.65	–
All Steam, PR11	0.50	–
All Steam, 1121 steam	0.91	–
All Steam, 1509 steam	0.85	–
White Sella, 1121 Creamy	0.84	–
White, non basmati (organic)	1.55	–
White, basmati (organic)	1.85	–
Red	–	0.81
Papery dried	–	1.86
Jasmine	–	0.54
Long, white, 5%	–	0.52
White glutinous	–	0.64
Japonica	–	0.64
Homali	–	0.69
Calrose	–	0.70
Black	–	1.12

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Global supplies remain stable with large exportable surpluses in India and Vietnam, despite Indian policy-driven export pauses earlier this year.
• South and Southeast Asian harvests are on track; minor output risks are linked to localized flooding and the El Niño impact, but no severe production shortfalls have been reported as of mid-December 2025.
• Demand in Africa and the Middle East remains resilient, buffered by relatively firm local currencies and food security programs.
• Speculators have recently unwound some net-short positions in related grains (notably wheat), reflecting a less negative stance across agricultural futures.
• Global shipping remains a watch point due to Red Sea disruptions and higher insurance costs, which could affect FOB offers and landed cost for buyers.

📊 Market Fundamentals Overview

• USDA and local ministry data suggest the world rice crop for 2025/26 is set to remain above 510 million tonnes, with ample buffer stocks.
• India’s reopening of some export channels has reinjected liquidity but may add volatility if the government shifts course again.
• Major buyers (China, Nigeria, Indonesia, Iran) continue to diversify sourcing, mixing long-standing partners with emerging exporters (e.g., Myanmar, Cambodia).

Country	2024/25 Output (mt)	2024/25 Exports (mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mt)
India	130	19	41
Vietnam	41	7.5	3.5
Thailand	31.5	8.5	4.2
Pakistan	8.7	4.5	0.6
China	148	2.5	110
USA	7.1	3	1.2
Indonesia	35	0.02	2.1

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Production Risks

• South Asia: Early dry season in North India and Bangladesh; irrigation reserves are near normal, minimizing moisture stress risk for the key Rabi crop.
• Southeast Asia: Southern Vietnam and Thailand are expected to receive beneficial showers, improving outlook for both winter and spring crops.
• No major cyclone or drought threat forecasted for the next 3-4 weeks.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Price Forecast	Direction
CBOT Rice Nearby	9.60–9.80 USD/cwt	⬆️ Slightly Higher
India FOB 1121 Steam	0.90–0.93 EUR/kg	➡️ Stable
Vietnam FOB Long Grain	0.50–0.55 EUR/kg	⬅️ Slightly Weaker

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Diversify sourcing and monitor short-term export policy risks from India and Southeast Asia.
• Buyers should consider forward coverage up to Q2 2026, particularly for premium varieties where local prices are sticky.
• Exporters should monitor shipping delays and insurance cost trends, particularly around the Red Sea corridor.
• Short-term strength in CBOT and firm FOB offers may invite additional selling from exporters if stocks remain comfortable and logistics normalize.
• Weather monitoring is advised, but near-term yield risk remains moderate.