Sunflower Market: Prices Surge as Oilseed Sentiment Shifts, Weather Risks Loom

The sunflower market is entering a dynamic phase, with prices on the rise and various market participants closely monitoring shifting fundamentals and external influences. On SAFEX, sunflower futures surged, notably with the December 2025 contract closing at ZAR 12,400/t (+5.4%)—a sharp move attributed to a combination of firming oilseed demand and broader commodity sentiment. This uptrend comes despite headwinds in related oilseed markets, including ongoing pressure on international soybeans. The underlying mood is mixed: while the USDA’s latest numbers and export sales provide some optimism, the global oilseed market remains sensitive to trade policy shifts and volatile energy prices. With crude oil gaining strength—partly due to geopolitics involving the US, Venezuela, and Russia—sunflower oil’s competitiveness is in the spotlight. Adding to this complexity, the weather outlook for key sunflower-growing regions is mixed, with ongoing dryness in the Black Sea region and some forecasts hinting at erratic rainfall.

On the fundamental side, a combination of restrained farmer selling, high processing margins, and uncertain export pathways is generating short-term tightness in some producing regions. The comparative strength of sunflower against other oilseeds (like canola and palm) as evidenced by recent price action in Winnipeg and Kuala Lumpur, further underscores the current bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, speculative positioning remains positive, with net-long positions in oilseeds increasing across major contracts. Overall, the next weeks will test market resilience amid evolving trade, weather, and policy risks.

📈 Prices: Sunflower Market Overview

Exchange/Location	Contract/Product	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SAFEX (ZA)	Sunflower Dec 25	12,400 ZAR/t	+5.4% (▲670)	Bullish
SAFEX (ZA)	Sunflower Jan 26	10,709 ZAR/t	-0.85% (▼91)	Cautious
Kyiv, UA (spot)	Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	€0.62/kg	0%	Stable
Odesa, UA (spot)	Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	€0.61/kg	0%	Stable
Beijing, CN (FOB)	Sunflower seeds (black w/ stripe, 98%)	€1.47/kg	-3.9%	Bearish
Beijing, CN (FOB)	Sunflower kernels (hulled, confection)	€1.04/kg	-1.0%	Slightly Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine: Acreage for 2026 rapeseed seeded slightly lower, but production is seen steady near 3.3 million tons. Sunflower area is steady; exports remain robust owing to firm EU and Turkish demand.
• Russia: Main Black Sea competitor; production up YoY, but export logistics remain a bottleneck.
• South Africa: Domestic stocks tightening, supporting SAFEX prices amid active crushing demand and weather-driven harvest concerns.
• China: Imports sunflower seeds (especially from Ukraine), but recent policy and logistics disruptions have reduced purchases; prices remain under slight downward pressure.
• Speculation/Investment: Net long positions in sunflower-related oilseed futures are expanding, signaling bullish bias.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Commentary

• USDA & EU Reports indicate stable global sunflower seed production for 2025/26, with a slight upside risk if weather improves.
• Oilseed prices in general have found support thanks to rising crude oil futures, as elevated energy input costs lift vegetable oil values globally.
• Lower canola sales and farmer holding in Canada point to limited downside for oilseeds generally, including sunflower.
• Palm oil exports remain tepid from Malaysia, and high inventories there keep the oilseed complex from rallying even further.

🌤 Weather Outlook & Crop Risks

• Ukraine/Black Sea: Dryness persists, especially southern oblasts—yield risk remains, though next week could bring scattered showers.
• South Africa: Mixed precipitation outlook, with La Niña patterns introducing higher volatility; recent dryness could stress late-planted crops.
• EU: Mild, wet start to winter supports seedling development thus far in central/eastern Europe.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2025/26 Output (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Export/Import Notes
Ukraine	~15.5	~2.6	Top exporter (EU/Türkiye main buyers)
Russia	~17.2	~2.3	Exports growing, logistics key issue
EU	~11.0	~1.1	Steady demand, minor imports
Argentina	~3.6	~0.8	Stable, mainly domestic use

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Consider forward coverage as prices rebound; focus on origins with reliable logistics (UA/BG).
• Sellers: Use rallies to hedge 2025/26 crop, especially if weather stays challenging in Black Sea/South Africa.
• Processors/Crushers: Secure supplies through Q1/Q2—processing margins remain attractive, but tighter availabilities could lift basis further.
• Speculators: Trend remains up, but watch energy and macro signals; volatility may spike on weather updates or geopolitical headlines.
• Spread Traders: Monitor sunflower vs. other oilseeds (soy, rapeseed) for mean-reversion opportunities.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location/Contract	Current Price	3-Day Forecast Range	Trend
SAFEX Sunflower Dec 25	12,400 ZAR/t	12,200 – 12,600 ZAR/t	Firm/Bullish
Ukraine (Kyiv, FCA)	€0.62/kg	€0.61 – €0.63/kg	Stable
Odesa (FOB)	€0.56/kg	€0.55 – €0.58/kg	Steady/Up
Beijing (FOB)	€1.47/kg	€1.44 – €1.49/kg	Slightly Weak