Corn Market Outlook: US Exports Surge, Ethanol Supports, EU Eyes Ukraine

The global corn market stands at a critical juncture, with regional dynamics and export competitiveness driving near-term sentiment. Over the last week, corn prices managed to shake off broader weakness seen in wheat and soybeans, buoyed by robust US ethanol processing and upbeat export data. The latest EIA report highlights a fresh record in US ethanol corn usage, with production climbing to 1.131 million barrels per day (bpd), a clear indication of energetic domestic industrial demand. Unlike previous weeks, corn stocks dipped despite higher output, fueled by spirited export activity—most notably a sizeable 177,055-tonne sale to Mexico as per the USDA.

Ukrainian corn’s global position remains uncertain as traders keep a close eye on possible ceasefire developments, which could unshackle EU imports and apply downward price pressure. Meanwhile, the EU market remains stable, thanks partially to a softer Euro and largely flat domestic trade. Investment flows have also tilted bullish, with CFTC data showing investors switching to net long positions amid short-covering. In this evolving environment, US corn, now more competitively priced on world markets, continues to draw international demand even as big global feed wheat supplies—especially from Argentina—temper bullish price hopes.

📈 Corn Prices at Key Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Euronext (Paris)	Mar 2026	€185.75/t	0.00%	Stable
Euronext (Paris)	Jun 2026	€187.25/t	0.00%	Stable
CBOT (US)	Mar 2026	443.75 USc/bu	-0.17%	Bearish
CBOT (US)	May 2026	451.50 USc/bu	-0.17%	Bearish
DCE (China)	Jan 2026	2,220 CNY/t	-0.05%	Slightly Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Ethanol Demand: Record weekly corn grind for ethanol—up 26,000 bpd to 1.131 million bpd.
• Stock Drawdown: Despite higher production, US ethanol stocks fell 157,000 barrels to 22.353 million, signaling strong end-use and exports (EIA).
• US Exports: USDA reported a large one-off sale of 177,055 tonnes of corn to Mexico; US corn is globally competitive after recent price dips.
• EU & Ukraine: EU prices steady; euro weakness offers support. Ukraine peace prospects could increase shipments—potentially bearish for EU corn.
• Global Feed Wheat: Large supplies, particularly from Argentina, are capping corn rally potential.

📊 Fundamentals & Positioning

• CFTC Commitment of Traders: Managed money switched to net long corn futures/options (+23,270 contracts via short-covering) as of Dec 2.
• Inventory Trends: US stocks moderate despite strong demand; EU supplies steady; China remains the main importer, but Dalian corn futures have weakened this week.
• Price Competitiveness: US corn now pricing aggressively for the world market.

🌦 Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Temperate and dry conditions expected, facilitating winter logistics and supporting ethanol demand.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Mild weather aids export flows, though risks of logistics snags persist with political uncertainties.
• South America (Argentina, Brazil): Forecasts signal drier-than-average conditions in Argentina, raising yield risks; Brazil mostly favorable, but regional showers could impact late plantings.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2025/26 Output (est.)	Stocks (est.)	Trends
USA	383 Mt	48 Mt	Stable, ethanol demand high
EU	60 Mt	10 Mt	Stable, Ukraine supplies in focus
Ukraine	30 Mt	4 Mt	Exports depend on conflict status
Brazil	120 Mt	12 Mt	Generally good, weather risk in south
Argentina	54 Mt	3.5 Mt	Drought risk could reduce output
China (importer)	290 Mt	209 Mt	Rising imports

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Support from US ethanol and export demand—watch for further USDA sales announcements.
• Mid-term: Monitor political situation in Ukraine; peace agreements could bring more Black Sea corn to EU, pressuring prices.
• Speculative: CFTC positioning hints at a potential technical rally; momentum traders may benefit from recent shifts to long exposures.
• Risk: Downside persists if global feed wheat competition intensifies or South American weather improves.
• Physical trade: US and Ukraine-origin corn remain the cheapest options, with French FOB slipping marginally.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Marketplace	Price Forecast Range	Direction
CBOT (Mar 26)	440–448 USc/bu	Sideways/Bullish
Euronext (Mar 26)	€185–187/t	Stable
DCE (Jan 26)	2,200–2,230 CNY/t	Sideways