Stable Demand, Tight Margins: China Beans Market Holds Steady Amid Sluggish Trade

The Chinese beans market is currently characterized by a remarkable stability in both supply and demand dynamics. According to recent market feedback, black bean (黑豆) fundamentals have not changed significantly, with most traders and processors focusing on servicing existing clients. As a result, mainstream price quotes are largely range-bound, and most suppliers continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Producers show little willingness to lower raw grain prices, thanks to firm on-farm cost structures, meaning final product prices enjoy robust support. In downstream markets, buyers are mainly purchasing based on immediate needs, with volume low and market activity flat. The export front is also showing signs of contraction, with decreased shipments mainly targeting Southeast Asia and Taiwan. This cautious and subdued trading environment has reinforced market stability, keeping prices largely unchanged in the short term. The overall outlook remains neutral, with only minor bearish or bullish factors evident. Going forward, weather patterns and currency trends will be watched closely for any signs of change.

📈 Prices

Product	Type/Grade	Origin	Location	Organic	Price (EUR/tonne FOB)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Mung beans	Organic, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	Yes	1.65	1.64	+0.01	Stable/Bullish
Mung beans	3.8 mm up, 99.5%	CN	Beijing	No	1.46	1.45	+0.01	Stable
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	Yes	1.13	1.16	-0.03	Weak/Stable
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	Yes	2.72	2.78	-0.06	Bearish
Kidney beans	Dark red, organic	CN	Beijing	Yes	1.37	1.39	-0.02	Stable
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	CN	Beijing	Yes	1.28	1.30	-0.02	Stable
Kidney beans	Dark red	BR	Brasília	No	1.39	1.37	+0.02	Stable/Bullish
Kidney beans	White	GB	London	No	1.32	1.30	+0.02	Stable/Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Domestic supply: Black bean supply and demand in China remain largely unchanged, with no large surpluses or shortages noted. Farmers are unwilling to cut prices due to stable cost support.
• Demand side: Most buyers and processors are sticking to orders from longstanding clients. Downstream procurement is on an as-needed basis, with no large-scale restocking.
• Exports: Shipments from China to Southeast Asia and Taiwan have contracted, reflecting subdued global demand and possibly competitive pricing from other origins.
• Market sentiment: Overall steady with localized weakness, particularly in high-end organic segments.

📊 Fundamentals

• Cost structure: Raw material (毛粮) prices from producers are not declining, propping up wholesale and retail price floors.
• Inventories: Both on-farm and in-warehouse stocks stable, no overhang or major drawdown.
• International competition: Brazil and the UK remain active in global bean exports; price competitiveness is evident in recent slight price rises for non-Chinese origins.
• Speculative activity: Minimal; most activity is commercial or industrial, rather than speculative.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• China, key growing regions (Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia): Recent weather patterns have been typical for this time of year, with no major disruptions reported. However, forward-looking models indicate the potential for colder-than-average conditions in the Northeast, which could affect winter soil moisture and, in turn, spring planting prospects.
• Brazil: Southern regions continue to experience moderate rainfall, which is favorable for late-stage crop development but may impact harvesting if excessive.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024 Production (est., 1000 MT)	2024 Stocks (est., 1000 MT)	Acreage YoY Change
China	2,250	320	-2%
Brazil	2,460	275	+1%
India	6,340	710	0%
UK	190	45	+3%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 For Traders: Maintain current hedging positions; price volatility remains low. Consider small speculative longs in organic kidney beans if demand recovers.
• 📌 For Producers: Hold firm on ask prices unless input costs decline; minimal market pressure to discount.
• 📌 For Buyers: Immediate requirements should be covered; consider forward buys only if weather turns adverse.
• 📌 For Exporters: Monitor Southeast Asia markets for potential short-term recovery in buying interest.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/tonne)	3-Day Forecast	Confidence
Beijing (CN)	Mung beans (organic)	1.65	1.65–1.67	High
Beijing (CN)	Kidney beans (black, organic)	1.13	1.12–1.14	High
Brasília (BR)	Kidney beans (dark red)	1.39	1.38–1.40	Moderate
London (GB)	Kidney beans (white)	1.32	1.32–1.34	Moderate