Sunflower Market Under Pressure: Can Demand Recovery Boost Prices?

The global sunflower market has entered a subdued phase, marked by weak trading sentiment and a supply chain dominated by farmers and processing plants. In major origins such as Ukraine, Bulgaria, China, and Moldova, spot prices have either stagnated or declined marginally, reflecting the undercurrent of oversupply and muted demand. Most growers are now engaging in price negotiations rather than fixed contracts, and volume trades are scarce. Factory demand remains tepid, with operating rates driven by short-term inventory needs rather than any substantial end-use recovery. Consequently, the lack of significant procurement from medium and small processors continues to dampen any potential price optimism.

On the international front, Chinese and European buyers are refraining from bulk orders, and export shipments are skewed toward smaller, opportunity-driven deals often initiated at trade fairs. Longer-term export contracts have lost momentum due to domestic policy shifts in China and persistently high inventories overseas. With downstream customers still destocking at a sluggish pace, the global sunflower market is characterized by a classic demand-supply standoff. The path ahead hinges crucially on a demand revival, without which a substantial, lasting price rebound appears unlikely. Regional weather patterns and the European winter’s effect on sowing and early plant development also remain important for determining the next market move.

📈 Prices Overview

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Δ	Market Sentiment
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.56	0.00	Neutral/Weak
Sunflower kernels, meal	Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.55	0.00	Neutral/Weak
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	0.62	0.00	Stable
Sunflower seeds, black, 98%	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.61	0.00	Stable
Sunflower seeds, Black with stripe, 98%	China	Beijing	FOB	1.47	-0.06	Weak
Sunflower kernels, hulled, confection, 99.95%	China	Beijing	FOB	1.04	-0.01	Weak
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery, 99.95%	China	Beijing	FOB	1.04	-0.02	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Raw material ample: Sufficient supply of semi-processed kernels; most plants only do light replenishment, larger buying rounds are rare.
• Exports slack: Export orders now dominated by small, short-term purchases as long-term contract volume drops year-on-year due to policy change in China and large stocks abroad.
• Demand hesitant: End-user demand remains sluggish; inventory clearance at the downstream remains slow. The market is stuck in a low-activity, supply-overhang phase.
• Price negotiation: Flexible pricing in most markets as sellers adjust to weak terminal demand.

📊 Fundamentals & External Factors

• Stable to declining prices across EU, Black Sea, and China, with some softening in higher value segments (striped seeds, confection kernels).
• Last month’s report cited similar stagnation, though current bearishness is somewhat more pronounced—reflecting poor demand improvement and higher stocks persisting longer.
• USDA’s last Oilseeds Outlook suggested modest production downgrades in Ukraine and Russia due to weather but still ample stocks globally.
• Speculators have reduced bullish positions on sunflower, reflecting a lack of confidence in a near-term rebound absent a demand recovery.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Milder than usual winter, with moderate soil moisture deficits reported, but no major frost threats so far. Planting conditions largely satisfactory, but close watch needed through early spring.
• Europe (Bulgaria, Moldova): Winter precipitation levels normal, with above-average temperatures. Sowing for the 2026 crop is expected to proceed on schedule assuming no cold snap.
• Northern China: Dry and cold, but with sufficient irrigation in key regions. Weather not a limiting factor yet for seed condition or kernel development.
• Future watch: Any cold wave or spring drought in the Black Sea region could tighten supply and trigger price support.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)	Status
Ukraine	~16.0	High	Adequate; export pace slow
Russia	~14.5	High	Stocks ample despite weather downgrades
EU (incl. Bulgaria)	~10.1	Ample	Decent; internal trade active
China	~2.7	Rising	Domestic overhang, policy restrictions

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📉 Sellers: Avoid aggressive sales at current lows unless cash flow is critical; consider holding limited stocks for potential late-Q1 demand improvement.
• 📈 Buyers: Favor tactical purchases and short-covering in the spot market; remain flexible with limited inventory commitment.
• ❓ Exporters: Focus on small, opportunistic trades and broadening buyer base amid sluggish long-term contract demand.
• 🔔 Watch for: Weather surprises and any signs of demand recovery—especially in China or EU snack/processing sectors—as potential catalysts for short-term rallies.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast: Key Regions

Market	Product	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Ukraine, Odesa (FOB)	Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	0.55 – 0.56	Stable to Weak
Ukraine, Kyiv (FCA)	Sunflower seeds (black, 98%)	0.61 – 0.63	Stable
China, Beijing (FOB)	Sunflower seeds (black w/ stripe 98%)	1.45 – 1.47	Weak
Bulgaria, Sofia (FCA)	Sunflower kernels (hulled 99.98%)	0.94 – 0.95	Stable