The rapeseed market, after enduring notable losses in preceding weeks, has witnessed a short-term recovery fueled by a confluence of supportive global drivers and fresh moves in energy and oilseed complexes. Rapeseed futures rebounded in Paris (Euronext MATIF) and ICE Canola, propelled by surging crude oil prices and a significant uptick in canola contracts at Winnipeg. This briefly interrupted the prevailing bearish trend, delivering market participants a sense of temporary stability amid the year-end positioning by traders. Notwithstanding the recent bounce, current sentiment remains cautious—with gains capped by a strengthening euro and ongoing supply overhang from robust oilseed harvest expectations, particularly in South America. Meanwhile, physical market prices in Ukraine (FCA Kyiv and Odesa) and France (FOB Paris) remain stable, with no material change from previous weeks. The intersection of tightening inventories, logistics disruptions, global oil price volatility, and uncertain demand projections sets the stage for a delicate price equilibrium as 2025 draws to a close. For trading desks and producers alike, robust risk management and an eye on evolving weather risks will be pivotal as the new year gets underway.
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📈 Prices
| Exchange | Contract | Last Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext (MATIF) | Feb 26 | €455.50/t | 0.00% | Neutral/Cautious |
| Euronext (MATIF) | May 26 | €452.25/t | 0.00% | Neutral |
| ICE (Winnipeg) | Jan 26 | CA$601.60/t | +3.32% | Bullish short-term |
| ICE (Winnipeg) | Mar 26 | CA$612.50/t | +3.12% | Bullish short-term |
Current Cash Prices
| Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Last Change | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Kyiv | FCA | 0.58 | 0.00 | 2025-12-18 |
| Ukraine | Odesa | FCA | 0.60 | 0.00 | 2025-12-18 |
| France | Paris | FOB | 0.55 | 0.00 | 2025-12-06 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Oil Market Volatility: Higher crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, have directly increased support for rapeseed and related oilseeds due to their linkage to biodiesel demand.
- Spec Headwinds: The sharp drop in rapeseed and canola prices in prior weeks led to oversold conditions, sparking short-term covering but not a fundamental trend reversal.
- Harvest Pressure Abroad: Excellent weather and record soybean harvest forecasts in Brazil (2025/26 estimate now 180.4 Mt, up from 178.5 Mt) weigh on vegetable oil prices by increasing global supply, keeping gains in rapeseed capped.
- Export Activity: USDA data shows subdued US soybean exports compared to last year, though sales rebounded recently. This dynamic has a ripple effect across oilseed markets, including rapeseed.
- Currency Movements: A firm euro has limited Paris price recovery, making MATIF less competitive for exports. Canadian ICE canola rose more decisively on local dollar movements.
📊 Fundamentals
- Inventory Levels: European and Ukrainian rapeseed stocks remain moderate, with the latest cash prices steady and volumes unchanged week-over-week.
- Speculator Positioning: Recent short‑covering ahead of the holiday period helped drive the technical bounce; longer-term funds remain cautious given the bear trend in oilseeds.
- Crush Margins: Margins for crushers in the EU have improved due to higher oil prices, potentially encouraging demand if sustained.
- Global Oilseed Landscape: High South American soy supply and oilseed export competition constrain upward rapeseed momentum, especially if European demand stalls.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- EU: Mild, wetter-than-average conditions forecast for much of Western Europe into the New Year, supportive for winter rapeseed crop establishment and reducing winterkill risk.
- Ukraine: A pattern of typical winter weather persists—no severe frost events expected, which bodes well for over-wintering fields. Field conditions generally favourable for 2026 yields if spring moisture is adequate.
- Canada: Prairie regions remain under normal to slightly above-normal snow cover. No weather-driven disruptions anticipated for stored canola or fieldwork in the short term.
- South America: Ongoing excellent conditions in Brazil for late soybean growth could keep downward pressure on global vegoil values.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Production 2025/26 (Mt) | Stocks 2025/26 (Mt) | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU | 19.3 | 2.8 | Moderate supply after large 2025 crop, steady demand |
| Ukraine | 4.0 | 0.5 | Key export origin; stable pricing |
| Canada | 18.0 | 2.1 | Sharp rebound on ICE contrasts with earlier weakness |
| Australia | 5.7 | 0.9 | Stocks manageable; strong European import interest |
| China | 14.9 | 11.8 | Huge stocks, high import demand |
📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-covering rallies offer selling opportunities—consider hedging long physical positions into strength.
- Watch energy prices and geopolitical events for directional cues on oil-linked oilseeds including rapeseed.
- Monitor South American harvest pace—is supply pressure from Brazil accelerating?
- End-of-year volatility may persist as liquidity dries up and funds square positions.
- Currency movements (Euro & Canadian Dollar) are currently critical for competitiveness on MATIF and ICE.
- Physical buyers: No urgency to increase coverage as supply appears ample and prices stable for now.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Origin | Direction | Forecast Range | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euronext MATIF (Feb 26) | Steady/Soft | €450 – €457/t | Firm euro, limited export interest; range-bound trade |
| ICE Winnipeg (Jan 26) | Firm to Slightly Up | CA$600 – CA$606/t | Momentum persists from oil, could fade by week’s end |
| Ukraine FCA (Kyiv/Odesa) | Steady | €0.58 – €0.61/kg | Stable with no export premium expected |
