Soya Market Outlook: Resilient Recovery Amid High Global Stocks & Shifting Trade Flows

The global soya market has entered a phase of cautious optimism as trading rebounds from last week’s losses. Central to recent price action is the interplay between higher crude oil prices—fueling biofuel-linked demand—and projected record harvests in South America, particularly Brazil. The ICE Winnipeg Canola surge and firmer soy oil prices in Chicago have lent critical support, offsetting the psychological impact of recent heavy selling in both rapeseed and soybeans. However, robust South American supply caps upward momentum. Brazil’s record forecast of 180.4 million tonnes, marked by early harvests in Paraná and Mato Grosso, intensifies export competition just as US export flows face seasonal pressures and logistical drag.

Fundamentally, the US has seen a modest improvement in export sales, largely on the back of renewed Chinese demand. Despite a week-on-week uptick in shipments, cumulative exports still lag sharply behind last season, highlighting a challenging trade environment. Meanwhile, USDA sales reports and the global oil market’s geopolitical climate continue to inject volatility. On the ground, weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina—favorable but with pockets of dryness—will likely shape late-season yield results and supply chains into early 2026. Amid these forces, traders need to navigate both the physical and speculative landscape with discipline, leveraging high-frequency data and staying alert to shifts in acreage forecasts and trade policy.

📈 Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
CBOT	Jan 26	1,055.75	+0.24%	US-Cent/bu	Positive
CBOT	Mar 26	1,067.75	+0.26%	US-Cent/bu	Upward Rebound
DCE	Jan 26	4,068.00	+0.49%	CNY/t	Firm
DCE	Mar 26	4,084.00	+0.56%	CNY/t	Stable
Spot (US)	No.2	0.47	0%	EUR/kg	Flat
Spot (India)	Sortex Clean	0.87	0%	EUR/kg	Flat
Spot (Ukraine)	Bulk	0.34	0%	EUR/kg	Flat
Spot (China)	Yellow, organic	0.76	+1.33%	EUR/kg	Slightly Bullish
Spot (China)	Yellow	0.69	+1.47%	EUR/kg	Slightly Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Brazil’s AgRural raised its 2025/26 forecast to a record 180.4 Mt (previous 178.5 Mt), harvest underway.
• US export shipments up 7.4% w/w but 51% below last year; China key buyer (386,010 t), followed by Mexico and Germany.
• US cumulative exports (since Sept) at 14.6 Mt (-46% YoY); market keenly watches recovery trajectory.
• USDA weekly export report (due Tuesday): expected bullish on beans (1.8–2.9 Mt).
• Speculative unwinding in CBOT and Euronext; holiday positioning effects present.

📊 Fundamentals

• Firm oil market tailwinds from geopolitical risks (Venezuela/Russia/Ukraine), weak dollar lends support.
• CBOT Soybean Oil: steady to slightly lower near-term; Jan 26 last at 48.53 US-Cent/lb (-0.04%).
• CBOT Soymeal: upward drift; Jan 26 last at USD 300.20/short ton (+0.54%).
• US: New sales to China (396,000 t balance split FY25/26 & FY26/27) offers price cushion.
• China and India imports/sourcing stable as global spreads narrow; Ukrainian soy offers remain most competitive in Europe.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Brazil: Favorable conditions in the south (Paraná, Mato Grosso), minor concerns over patchy dryness could limit yield potential in late areas.
• Argentina: Slight improvement after May/June dryness; recent rains supportive but subsoil moisture mixed, requiring close monitoring as harvest progresses.
• US Midwest: Seasonal dormancy; no cold damage threats to overwintering stocks reported.

Global weather models indicate mostly stable precipitation forecasts, reducing immediate frost/drought fears but keeping focus on South American fieldwork progress into January.

🌍 Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Expected Output (Mt)	2023/24 Output (Mt)	Stocks (end 2025F, Mt)
Brazil	180.4	162.6	38.5
US	113.5	117.7	7.1
Argentina	51.0	48.8	5.0
China (import)	0	0	29.3
EU27	2.6	2.5	1.3

📆 Trading Outlook

• Monitor Brazil harvest pace; aggressive downward price risk likely capped until export flows accelerate.
• US exports: slow recovery, but improved weekly sales may boost short-term sentiment—watch Tuesday’s USDA data.
• Geopolitical shocks in oil market continue to drive short-term speculation in soyoil and related products.
• South American weather is key over the next month; late-planted areas especially sensitive.
• Strong dollar reversal could put additional pressure on US-origin soybeans if macro tailwinds fade.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Regional)

Exchange	Contract	Current Close	3-Day Forecast	Directional Bias
CBOT	Mar 26	1,067.75 US-Cent/bu	1,065–1,075	Sideways/Bullish
DCE	Mar 26	4,084.00 CNY/t	4,060–4,120	Steady to slightly higher
Spot (EUR,kgs)	US No.2 FOB	0.47	0.46–0.48	Stable/Firm
Spot (EUR,kgs)	India Sortex Clean	0.87	0.86–0.89	Firm
Spot (EUR,kgs)	Ukraine Bulk	0.34	0.33–0.36	Steady

Prices expected to consolidate in the holiday-shortened week with limited volatility; keep an eye on export reports and weather swings for fresh directional cues.