Almonds Market: High Costs, Inventory Pressure & Profitability Challenges in 2026

The global almonds market is navigating a period of profound challenge and structural upheaval. While U.S. growers reliably produce the world’s most valuable tree nut crop, persistent financial pressure continues to shape the sector’s narrative as 2026 begins. Despite signs of a modest price recovery from historic lows, the industry remains mired in losses due to a perfect storm of rising costs, inventory overhang, and export headwinds. Data shows that from 2019–2023, U.S. almond prices averaged just USD 1.81 per pound—a sharp decline from the USD 3.05 average seen between 2014 and 2018.

Meanwhile, surging production costs (up nearly 40%) and declining returns (down 36%) have pushed average net margins deep into negative territory. With breakeven prices now estimated at USD 3.80–4.31 per pound, even today’s improved market prices fail to cover the full cost of production. Compounding the price challenge, a series of record harvests and shipping bottlenecks have led to swollen inventories, while major importers like China have scaled back purchases amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

The result: after covering an estimated USD 8,004 in production cost per acre, most U.S. almond growers are posting losses in excess of USD 2,600 per acre. With sector-wide losses projected near USD 3.6 billion in 2025, the industry faces a pivotal year ahead—where only significant gains in export demand or meaningful cost relief can restore profitability. Market participants must monitor evolving trade dynamics, cost structures, and weather patterns in key regions to navigate these volatile conditions.

📈 Almonds Prices

Type	Origin	Delivery/Location	Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Carmel, SSR, 18/20	US	FAS Washington D.C.	6.77	0.00	Neutral to Bearish
Carmel, SSR, 20/22	US	FAS Washington D.C.	6.73	0.00	Neutral to Bearish
Natural, Nonpareil SSR (Organic), 27/30	US	FOB Washington D.C.	9.37	0.00	Stable, Organic Premium

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Inventory Pressure: Oversupply remains a major issue due to post-pandemic export bottlenecks and record U.S. harvests (e.g., 3.12 bn lbs in 2020).
• Export Headwinds: Chinese almond imports from the U.S. fell 38% (H1 2025), reflecting ongoing trade friction and policy shifts.
• Global Demand Uncertainty: Weakness in key international markets exacerbates U.S. export difficulties, delaying price recovery.
• Currency Volatility: Fluctuating dollar and euro rates continue to influence trade competitiveness and price formation.

📊 Fundamentals

• Average Farm-Gate Revenue (US): ~USD 5.7 billion/year (tree nuts sector lead)
• Cost Inflation: Key inputs such as water, fertilizer, labor, fuel, and orchard renewal have raised average cost 40% since 2018.
• 2025 Costs and Revenue Outlook:
  • Average total cost: USD 8,004/acre
  • Bearing acreage: 1.36 million acres
  • Average yield: 1,980 lbs/acre
  • 2025 revenue (@USD 2.70/lb): USD 7.2bn
  • Estimated loss: USD 3.6bn sector-wide (~USD 2,658/acre)
• Breakeven Level: USD 3.80–4.31/lb, significantly above current market levels.

☁️ Weather & Regional Outlook

• California’s Central Valley (largest U.S. almond region) faces continued water stress and variable winter rainfall forecasts.
• Seasonal temperature swings could affect pollination and nut set, increasing uncertainty in 2026 yields.
• European crops (notably Spain) generally stable; Spanish prices are robust, with Marcona and Valencia varieties priced at €5.7–9/kg (FOB Madrid).

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• United States: Largest producer (~80% global share), but burdened by inventory buildup and negative margins.
• Spain: Second-largest, specialty varieties (Marcona, Valencia) selling at premium prices in Europe.
• China, Middle East, India: Top importers; Chinese imports sharply reduced, while India maintains moderate demand.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Market remains structurally oversupplied; slow inventory drawdown expected in 2026 unless export demand rebounds.
• Producers should focus on cost discipline and supply chain optimization amid negative margins.
• Premiums persist for organic/non-U.S. origins (e.g., Spanish Marcona/Nonpareil organic lines).
• Exporters to China should closely watch trade policy signals and pursue diversification to other Asian markets.
• Recommendation: Hold or cautiously accumulate long positions only if clear demand improvement emerges; defensive hedges advised.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange / Market	Variety	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Outlook
Washington D.C. FAS	Carmel, SSR, 18/20	6.77	6.70–6.80	Stable to Slight Downside
Washington D.C. FOB	Natural Nonpareil SSR 27/30 (Organic)	9.37	9.30–9.40	Stable
Madrid FOB	Marcona 12/14	6.75	6.70–6.90	Stable; Premium Maintained